JPMorgan Chase Institute’s Local Consumer Commerce Index Shows a 0.3 Percent Decrease in Consumer Spending Growth in October 2016Source: Business Wire
Growth contributions from large businesses rebounded significantly
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
“Despite a slight contraction,
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
Smaller cities, such as
Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Portland, and Columbus, continued to grow faster than mid-sized and large cities, with a 2.1 percent overall average growth rate in October 2016.
The top forty percent of consumers – from an income perspective -
continued to be a drag on growth in
October 2016, slightly overshadowing the positive growth contributed by the bottom sixty percent in that month.
Small business growth contributions fell sharply in
October 2016, subtracting 0.5 percentage points from growth in that month. This is a significant decline relative to the 2.3 percentage point contribution in September. This is only the fourth time in our series that small businesses have detracted from growth.
Large businesses recovered significantly from the 2 percentage point
subtraction from overall growth in
September 2016, contributing 1.2 percentage points to growth in October.
With a contribution of 0.9 percentage points, year-over-year spending
growth on nondurables, such as office supplies and clothing, recovered
in October after the decline experienced in
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer spending.
- The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported measures of how consumers think they spend.
The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
diversity of larger metropolitan areas in
the United Statesand account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
- The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income, business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the location of the business. For each lens, we show how different segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
- The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI will describe the economic picture of local communities and provide a powerful tool for city development officials, businesses, investors, and statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.
JPMorgan Chase Institute
Nicole Kennedy, 215-864-5732