S&P Global Mobility forecasts 89.6M auto sales worldwide in 2025
As 2025 approaches,
The global auto sector remains focused on managing production and inventory levels in response to regional demand patterns, which include slower growth in key markets, in some cases related to slower electric vehicle adoption rates.
The forecast outlook incorporates several factors, including improved supply, tariff impacts, still-high interest rates, affordability challenges, elevated new vehicle prices, uneven consumer confidence, energy price and supply concerns, risks in auto lending and the challenges of electrification. In the
"2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new
Global light vehicle sales for the full year 2024 are expected to reach 88.2 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This reflects a 1.7% increase from 2023, supported by ongoing inventory restocking throughout the year as supply chains become more stable.
Market-by-market forecasts
"Key challenges include the dynamic electrification storyline, alongside EU tariffs on mainland Chinese imports, Trump tariff risks, hesitant consumers, a new
"2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take hold," said
Mainland
The NEV boom is likely to extend into 2025 with electrified vehicle prices benefitting from cheaper battery costs together with generous national and regional subsidy programs to help stimulate new vehicle demand. Coupled with full NEV tax exemption through to the end of 2025, NEV penetration (as % of passenger vehicles) is projected to further increase to 58% in 2025, from 49% in 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility estimates.
2025 production outlook stagnates as global risks intensify
Global light vehicle production in 2024 is expected to finish at 89.1 million units – a 1.6% deterioration compared to 2023 levels, with all regions except mainland
The production outlook for 2025 is dominated by the assumption that the incoming
For 2025, S&P Global Mobility forecasts global light vehicle production levels to decline by 0.4%, to 88.7 million units. The tariff effects are difficult to isolate in each region especially considering the ongoing challenges of inventory management, and with continued volatility at the vehicle program level as OEMs make strategic adjustments to their future product plans.
"The auto industry continues to navigate uncertain terrain as we enter 2025, particularly as we anticipate President-elect Trump's incoming universal tariffs," said
In mainland
For the North American region, overall 2025 production is set to fall back by 2.4%, to 15.1 million units. The incoming Trump administration will mark a return to the predictably unpredictable with policies that are expected to influence overall demand and challenge vehicle mix assumptions. On a brighter note, deregulation should create tailwinds for the North American auto industry later in
Consumer uncertainty around electrification, especially speed bumps in
Through 2024, a host of OEMs have been walking back ambitious electrification plans for the coming five to 15 years. A key concern is how "natural" EV demand fares, as governments fine-tune policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, EV industrial policy, and tariffs. Outside
Despite the gloom, electric vehicles remain an important automotive growth sector, and S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to post 15.1 million units for 2025, up by 30% compared to 2024 levels, accounting for an estimated 16.7% of global light vehicle sales. For reference, 2024 posted an estimated 11.6 million BEVs globally, for 13.2% market share.
Major markets are forecast for most of this volume, though smaller markets will also see modest increases. Forecasted BEV share by region is as follows:
BEV Share Estimates, 2025 |
BEV Share Estimate in Region |
YOY Change (2025 v. 2024) |
|
20.4 % |
+43.4 % |
US |
11.2 % |
+36.0 % |
China |
29.7 % |
+19.7 % |
India |
7.5 % |
+117 % |
Global |
16.7 % |
+29.9 % |
Source: S&P Global Mobility, BEV share estimates, ©2024 S&P Global Mobility |
Looking beyond 2025, many uncertainties persist regarding the pace of electrification, especially regarding charging infrastructure, grid power, battery supply chains, global sourcing trends, tariff trade barriers, the rate of technological advancements, and the necessary level of support from policymakers to facilitate the shift from fossil fuels to electric alternatives. Currently,
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
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S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility