Two-thirds of Royal LePage experts in Quebec expect Canada-U.S. tariff war to have a moderate impact on activity in the recreational market

Highlights:

• The weighted median price of a single-family home in the province of Quebec's recreational property market rose 7.6% in 2024, compared to 2023.
• Waterfront property prices appreciated by 6.4% year over year, while the condominium segment of Quebec's recreational market saw price gains of 3.7%, compared to the previous year.
• Royal LePage expects continued price growth in 2025, forecasting that the median price of a single-family home in Quebec's recreational real estate market will increase 7.5% year over year in 2025.

MONTREAL , March 26, 2025 /CNW/ - Real estate activity in Quebec's resort markets saw a notable rebound in sales and prices in 2024, according to the Royal LePage^® 2025 Spring Recreational Property Report. Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic that sparked a rush to cottages and rural areas, market performance indicators are still in the green, despite global political and economic tensions. What's more, the performance of Quebec markets contrasts those in certain other Canadian provinces, where buyers are remaining on high alert as they wait to see the repercussions of tariffs on the Canadian economy and job market.

Provincially, the weighted median price¹ of a single-family home in the province of Quebec's major recreational real estate markets rose 7.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, to $425,300, signalling growing demand across all market segments. Waterfront properties reported a weighted median price increase of 6.4% over the same period, to $521,700. On a smaller scale, the weighted median price of a condominium rose by a moderate 3.7% to $345,700.

"The real estate market in Quebec's recreational regions saw a solid recovery in 2024, and the first few months of 2025 show demand is continuing to rise," said Dominic St-Pierre, senior vice-president of business development, Royal LePage. "Inventory is limited, new construction for recreational homes is quite rare, interest rates continue to decline and experienced buyers have the ability, thanks to their robust equity, to aspire to purchase more expensive properties."

Nationally, the weighted median price of a single-family home in Canada's recreational property regions rose by a modest 2.3% year over year to $627,700. The weighted median price of a single-family waterfront property actually fell by 3.6% year over year to $1,063,400 in 2024, while the weighted median price of a standard condominium remained flat, increasing just 0.2% to $431,700 over the same period.

Demand boosted by lower interest rates

"We have the perfect ingredients for a scenario of continued price gains and strong competition," said St-Pierre. "In a context where the appeal of recreational areas is not waning, competition between buyers is intensifying in several desirable regions. For sellers, however, this does not guarantee an easy sale: in such a nuanced market, proper price positioning remains essential to attract serious offers. More than ever, using a broker who specializes in recreational properties allows you to accurately navigate local specifics – zoning, access to bodies of water, easements, alternative financing and many other factors."

According to a survey of Royal LePage recreational experts in Quebec,² a majority (70%) of recreational property experts said demand has increased in their market due to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, 82% of experts said that recreational property buyers in their region generally obtain financing when making a purchase, a trend higher than the Canadian average (75%), indicating that Quebec buyers in this segment of the market are more influenced by interest rates.

Quebec recreational property buyers undeterred by tariff dispute

While demand does not seem to have faded in La Belle Province, other Canadian markets posted more mixed results.

According to St-Pierre, some buyers of recreational homes outside of Quebec, mainly in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, have adopted a wait-and-see approach, as political and economic uncertainties have prompted them to pump the brakes on their real estate endeavours. He adds that the Quebec economy has the advantage of being highly diversified compared to other Canadian provinces. This lower sensitivity of Quebec buyers to economic fluctuations could partly explain the boom in recreational markets in recent months.

When asked, a majority of brokers specializing in the province's recreational markets (67%) said they expected the issue of tariffs imposed by the United States on Canadian products, and Canada's response, to have a moderate impact on real estate activity in their region. However, almost one in five respondents (18%) anticipate a significant impact on the recreational market, while 9% believe that this situation will have no impact on real estate activity in their region.

"Urban property markets are normally more sensitive to economic fluctuations and political uncertainty," pointed out St-Pierre. "It is still difficult to measure precisely the extent of the impact of the current tariff dispute, but so far, Quebec's recreational property markets appear to be quite resilient."

He added that certain changes in behaviour could also favour local demand: "Faced with the Trump administration's controversial decisions, it is likely that some Quebec snowbirds will abandon their second homes in sunny American states and turn to our local recreational markets instead. This could increase competition and further stimulate demand for this property type in Quebec."

Forecast for 2025: Growth expected early in the year, driven by continued favourable conditions

Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family home in Quebec's recreational regions will increase 7.5% in 2025, compared to 2024, to reach $457,198.³ This forecast is based in particular on the expectation that the downward trend of interest rates will continue to support demand, as 79% of Royal LePage recreational experts in the province believe will be the case. Already, since the beginning of the year, buyers seem to be rushing in before more economic uncertainty hampers their purchasing power.

"Most of the projected price growth is expected to materialize in the first half of the year, when buyers will want to take advantage of more favourable financing conditions before economic factors dampen their enthusiasm. Anticipation of an economic slowdown, fuelled by geopolitical tensions and the potential repercussions of the tariff war, could in fact moderately erode consumer confidence and their willingness to embark on a non-priority property purchase, such as a second home, in the second half of the year."

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Outaouais

Collines-de-l'Outaouais and Papineau (RCMs)

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in the Collines-de-l'Outaouais RCM increased 4.2% compared to 2023, reaching $549,900. Meanwhile, the Papineau RCM recorded a 17.1% increase to $336,300. In the single-family waterfront property segment, the median price declined 7.0% and 0.4%, to $470,000 and $399,900, respectively, in the Collines-de-l'Outaouais RCM and the Papineau RCM.

"The biggest challenge in the Outaouais recreational market is the shortage of properties available for sale," said Annick Fleury, residential real estate broker, Royal LePage Vallée de l'Outaouais. "Competition is particularly fierce for properties under $500,000, where many buyers are competing with each other. As the snow has not yet completely melted in the recreational regions, demand has not yet peaked. April should bring even more demand, and hopefully encourage more sellers to come on the scene."

According to Fleury, the unknown factor in the equation remains the impact of the tariff dispute and the federal election called this weekend. "These types of economic events tend to slow the pace of transactions, but as our clientele is made up mainly of second-home buyers, the effect could be more limited than in the mainstream residential market."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Collines-de-l'Outaouais and Papineau RCMs is expected to increase 8.0% and 10.0%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Laurentians

Pays-d'en-Haut RCM

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in the Pays-d'en-Haut RCM increased 5.0% compared to 2023, reaching $525,000. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium rose 9.9% year over year to $370,000, and the median price of a single-family waterfront home rose 8.6% to $637,500.

"Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic, I can see that demand for properties in the Lower Laurentians was not just a passing fad," said Éric Léger, chartered real estate broker with Royal LePage Humania. "Our region continues to attract professionals who want to settle here permanently because of its proximity to Montreal and its quality of life. For many, the first step is to invest in a second home, which will become their main residence when they retire. In 2024, demand continued to be driven by experienced buyers taking advantage of built-up equity when selling their existing property, which contributed to the rise in prices. The ageing population, the gradual fall in interest rates and municipal restrictions on property development also put upward pressure on home values."

Looking ahead, Léger is optimistic: "Although the tariff dispute is having a negative impact on the overall economy, it is likely that some Quebecers who have chosen to spend part of the year south of the border will reconsider their investment, and decide to repatriate their purchase plans here in Quebec."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Pays-d'en-Haut RCM is expected to rise 8.0%, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Les Laurentides RCM

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home and that of a single-family waterfront property in Les Laurentides RCM remained stable compared to 2023, at $425,000 and $499,900, respectively. The median price of a condominium fell 13.4% year over year to $368,000.

According to Corina Enoaie, agency director, Mont-Tremblant Real Estate, a division of Royal LePage, the market around Mont-Tremblant stabilized in 2024, after several years of sustained growth.

"We're seeing a return to balance, both in terms of prices and demand. Buyers are still there, but they're taking more time to shop around. Last fall, requests for visits were on the rise, but it's only these days that buyers seem ready to take action. One of the challenges in the condominium segment is that units are often rented on a short-term basis, which makes it difficult to organise showings. Despite this, demand remains very strong in this niche segment."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in Les Laurentides RCM is expected to increase 5.0%, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Argenteuil and Antoine-Labelle (RCMs)

In 2024, the Antoine-Labelle and Argenteuil RCMs reported an increase in the median price of a single-family home of 3.3% and 6.9%, respectively, compared to 2023, reaching $310,000 and $365,000. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family waterfront property also rose, by 2.0% and 4.9%, respectively, to $377,000 and $490,000.

"The region has seen healthy growth in property prices this year on the resale market," said Pierre Vachon, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Humania. "The supply of properties remains very low, but land for sale zoned for short-term rental is increasingly attractive to younger buyers looking to invest while enjoying a second living space close to nature. This trend is gradually leading local services to change in order to meet growing demand."

Vachon added that the decline in borrowing rates should maintain demand in the area. In his view, the region's real estate market should see no material impact from the trade war with the United States.

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Antoine-Labelle and Argenteuil RCMs is expected to increase 4.0% and 8.0%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Lanaudière

Matawinie and Montcalm (RCMs)

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in Lanaudière's Matawinie and Montcalm RCMs increased 12.5% and 8.2%, respectively, compared to 2023, to $360,000 and $395,000. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family waterfront property increased 13.5% in Matawinie ($457,500) and 18.7% in Montcalm ($378,800).

"In light of the many restrictions imposed on short-term rentals – sometimes to the point of banning visitors from neighbouring areas – we might have expected the market to slow down, but the price increases show otherwise," observed Éric Fugère, residential real estate broker, Royal LePage Habitations. "Demand remains strong, especially in developing municipalities like Sainte-Julienne, where new local services and a growing population are emerging. New schools and residential developments, particularly south of Montcalm, are attracting more and more young families."

In Fugère's opinion, pent-up demand has started to emerge more clearly since the beginning of 2025.

"In 2024, despite rising prices, overbidding was less widespread than at the height of the pandemic. But, we can feel the pressure returning, especially for properties under the $500,000 mark. Proximity to Montreal also plays a key role: many buyers work in Laval or Montreal, but choose to settle in Chertsey or the surrounding area, which makes the region more resilient to certain economic issues, such as the softwood lumber tariff dispute."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Matawinie and Montcalm RCMs is expected to increase 10.0% and 9.0%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Eastern Townships

Bromont and Memphrémagog RCM

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in Bromont increased 8.5% compared to 2023, reaching $732,500. In the Memphrémagog RCM, the median price for the same property type rose 13.6% over the same period, to $579,500. In the condominium market, the median price in Bromont fell 10.8% to $495,000, while the median price in the Memphrémagog RCM rose 5.0% to $337,000. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family waterfront home in the Memphrémagog RCM rose a moderate 2.5% to $870,000.

"Although inventory is lower than in previous years, the Bromont and Memphrémagog markets have shown great resilience over the course of 2024," said Véronique Boucher, residential real estate broker, Royal LePage Au Sommet. "We are seeing continued strong demand for recreational properties in the region, attracting mainly established professionals and pre-retirement couples looking for a balance between urban life and the tranquility of nature. We are also seeing the return of a number of first-time buyers and households that had previously put their plans on hold, as the decline in the key interest rate has given them a renewed sense of confidence."

Boucher expects the market to be strong this spring, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. On the one hand, the region has historically proven to be less sensitive to economic fluctuations, since it is not based on a specific sector of activity and is mainly intended for holiday activities. On the other hand, the more affluent customers in this sector generally have a large down payment, which enables them to buy a property at lower risk.

Boucher believes that the market will continue to see moderate price growth, particularly for single-family homes.

"One emerging trend that we are seeing is the desire of families to enter into a joint real estate venture for a secondary property. Whether it's renovating an existing chalet or buying a joint holiday home, families are looking to spend more time together, away from the city. We also sense that some retirees want to contribute to these projects now, by offering their children a living inheritance."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Memphrémagog RCM and Bromont is expected to increase 7.0% and 5.0%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Chaudière-Appalaches

Les Appalaches RCM

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in the Appalaches RCM rose 16.7% to $210,000, compared to 2023. The median price of a single-family waterfront property also rose significantly year over year, increasing 17.2% to $498,000.

"The region continues to attract out-of-town buyers, particularly pre-retirees and families looking for a quieter lifestyle in harmony with nature. Activity remained strong in 2024, particularly in the lower-end segment of the market, where supply is struggling to keep up with demand," said Mélissa Roussin, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Blanc & Noir.

While Roussin expects real estate activity to continue on its current path, she notes that the economic uncertainty surrounding tariffs could hold back some buyers, particularly in the high-end segment.

"The stability and success of many exporting companies in the region is reliant on trade with the United States. The imposition of tariffs could put significant pressure on these local businesses. However, it all depends on how long these economic sanctions remain in place," she added.

Another source of concern is the lowering of immigration thresholds scheduled for 2025. "A large part of the workforce needed for these businesses to function properly comes from immigration. Reducing the inflow of these workers could have a negative impact on production capacity and ultimately on the stability of the regional economy."

That said, Roussin remains confident. The local real estate market still benefits from solid fundamentals, thanks to persistent demand, a sought-after quality of life and a price point that is still affordable compared to other regions across Quebec.

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Appalaches RCM is expected to rise 9.0%, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Capitale-Nationale

La Côte-de-Beaupré and La Jacques-Cartier (RCMs)

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in La Côte-de-Beaupré RCM increased 15.9% compared to 2023, to reach $365,000, while in La Jacques-Cartier RCM, a more moderate increase of 8.7% was reported compared to the prior year, to reach $433,600. Over the same period, la Côte-de-Beaupré RCM's condominium segment saw a 12.8% increase in the median price, to $220,000, while condominiums in La Jacques-Cartier RCM saw a substantial 40.8% increase, to $317,400. For single-family waterfront properties in La Jacques-Cartier RCM, the median price rose 18.6% to $510,000.

"The recreational property market in the Capitale-Nationale region has been very dynamic over the past year. Like the Quebec City real estate market, demand has far exceeded the supply of available properties, a trend that should continue this spring," said Michèle Fournier, vice-president and chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec. "In the current environment, it is not surprising to see properties sell in less than 15 days. This strong demand is leading to more and more multiple-offer scenarios, putting strong upward pressure on prices."

Fournier notes that after a more stable 2023 recreational property market, 2024 was marked by renewed confidence. Although households now have to deal with geopolitical uncertainty, she is optimistic about activity in the recreational property segment in the months leading up to the summer market.

"It is difficult to measure the extent of the impact of this instability on real estate activity, but the Capitale-Nationale is generally less vulnerable to setbacks in the economy. Admittedly, some people may delay their decision to buy, but it should be noted that the majority of buyers of recreational properties come from Quebec City. The high concentration of stable jobs, particularly in the public service and insurance sectors, acts as a shield against economic shocks and continues to support demand for recreational properties."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in La Côte-de-Beaupré and La Jacques-Cartier RCMs is expected to rise 14.0% and 9.5%, respectively, compared with 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Charlevoix RCM

In 2024, the median price of a single-family home in the Charlevoix RCM fell 7.9% compared to 2023, to $350,000.

"Despite a drop in prices, we saw a healthy level of real estate activity in 2024, as the region recorded a higher number of sales year over year. The drop in interest rates triggered last June by the Bank of Canada gave a number of buyers who had been priced out of the market a boost in confidence," said Jean-François Larocque, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec.

With inventory levels already tight in the region, Larocque said this renewed confidence could create a supply-demand imbalance. While recreational properties are still popular with buyers from outside the region, in particular for a more relaxed lifestyle close to the great outdoors, he notes that a large proportion of renters already living in the area are actively looking to become homeowners.

"Rent prices have sky-rocketed in recent years. Many households can no longer see the benefits of renting and are prepared to make the sacrifices needed to become homeowners," he added.

According to Larocque, although the trade war with the United States is threatening jobs in certain industries, the region should not be significantly affected. He points out that two major projects could stimulate real estate activity in the region in 2025. Firstly, a new galvanized steel plant will open in the coming months in Saint-Urbain, creating nearly 100 skilled jobs. And, if the wharf project between L'Isle-aux-Coudres and Saint-Joseph-de-la-Rive is included in the Quebec Infrastructure Plan, it could translate into major investments for the region, as well as the creation of new jobs that should support the housing market.

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Charlevoix RCM is expected to increase 5.0%, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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Gaspésie – Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Avignon, Bonaventure and Côte-de-Gaspé (RCMs)

In 2024, the real estate market in the Avignon, Bonaventure and Côte-de-Gaspé RCMs showed contrasting dynamics. The median price of a single-family home in the Avignon RCM increased 12.6% compared to 2023, reaching $207,000, while the median price in the Bonaventure RCM rose slightly by 1.3% to $216,500. Conversely, in the Côte-de-Gaspé RCM, the median price of a single-family home decreased 13.5% to $206,800.

"Demand remained strong in 2024, particularly in sought-after seaside and forest areas," said Christian Cyr, residential and commercial real estate broker, Royal LePage Village. "The buyer market is driven by two main demographics: retirees or pre-retirees looking for a second home, and young people from the region returning to settle down here, often as a couple, with stable employment. The warmer, more accessible Baie des Chaleurs is also attracting a number of buyers in their fifties who want to return to their roots."

At the same time, he notes, many older people would like to sell their property and move into a rental, but the lack of available units for rent is limiting this transition and helping to keep resale inventory scarce, particularly in the $200,000-$250,000 price bracket.

While elevated interest rates forced some buyers, particularly among young families, to hit pause on their real estate plans in the first half of 2024, activity in the region has remained steady. A number of buyers failed to secure financing, accentuating anxiety about the rising cost of living and stagnating wages in the region.

Looking ahead, discussions surrounding the imposition of new tariffs are raising concerns in the commercial fishing industry, a regional economic pillar along with forestry and tourism.

"Although buyer behaviour does not yet seem to be influenced by economic uncertainties, it is clear that the repercussions on employment could be felt in the medium term, if export costs rise or if access to markets becomes more complex," pointed out Cyr. "That said, for the time being, the housing market remains resilient, supported by steady demand and limited supply. The gradual fall in interest rates could even restore the confidence of some hesitant buyers, particularly young families and first-time buyers."

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in the Avignon, Bonaventure and Côte-de-Gaspé RCMs is expected to increase 5.0%, 5.0% and 3.0%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Price and Forecast Chart (Province of Quebec):
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Price and Forecast Chart (Canada):
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About the Royal LePage Spring Recreational Property Report

The Royal LePage Spring Recreational Property Report compiles insights, data and forecasts from 17 real estate markets in Quebec. Median price data was compiled and analyzed by Royal LePage for the period between January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023. Data was sourced through Centris. Royal LePage's provincial weighted median home prices and forecast are based on a weighted model using sales in each region. Data availability is based on a transactional threshold and whether regional data is available using the report's standard housing types. Prices may change from previous reports due to a change in the number of participating regions.

About the Royal LePage Recreational Property Advisor Survey

A provincial online survey of 33 real estate brokers serving buyers and sellers in Quebec's recreational regions. The survey was conducted between February 27 and March 19, 2025.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage^® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women's shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services^® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

Royal LePage ^® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services^®

SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services