Momentum expected to return to Canada's housing market this spring, tempered by economic anxiety and cautious buyers
Home prices and sales activity softened in the final quarter of 2025
Fourth quarter highlights:
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, the national aggregate home price decreased 1.5% year over year.
- The
Greater Montreal Area's aggregate home price increased 4.5% year over year, while the greaterToronto andVancouver markets recorded declines of 5.7% and 4.1%, respectively, in the fourth quarter. -
Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (13.2%) amongCanada's major regions for the seventh consecutive quarter. -
Royal LePage ® expects spring market activity to rise, but not surge, as buyers re-engage amid reduced borrowing costs and improved housing affordability.
"Despite subdued activity levels, home prices largely held their ground in the final quarter of 2025," said
"That said, buyers heading into the spring market have a meaningful advantage over last year: lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice. In an era where home inventory is chronically constrained, inventory levels are Goldilocks healthy. Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation's largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased modestly by 0.8 per cent year over year to
Among
"At long last, home values across
"This convergence has meaningful implications. As affordability improves in
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Weak condo market conditions persist in urban centres
Price softness in
"Condominium markets in major urban centres remain under pressure, as weaker demand continues to collide with increased supply," said Soper. "During the brief period of elevated interest rates following the pandemic, many small-scale investor-landlords found the cash flow math no longer worked. Higher carrying costs forced some to exit the market, adding to resale supply.
"Under normal conditions, investors would be expected to return as borrowing costs eased through 2024 and 2025. This time, however, the timing worked against them. Reductions in immigration numbers, as well as quotas for temporary foreign workers and international students, have sharply curtailed rental demand, leaving fewer tenant customers just as rates began to fall."
Spring market set to simmer, not surge
Spring has historically been one of the most active periods in the housing market calendar, driven by improved weather conditions, pent-up demand from the winter months, and the flexibility to move during the summer. In 2026, the spring market is expected to bring a renewed sense of momentum, though not the sharp surge in activity seen in past cycles. Continued consumer caution and a lingering lack of urgency are likely to temper both sales activity and price growth, keeping market conditions more balanced.
"The conditions are in place for a more active spring market in 2026. Interest rates are no longer a barrier to home ownership, inventory levels are healthy, and economic indicators continue to point to moderate growth in both GDP and employment," said Soper.
"What continues to be a drag on the housing market is consumer confidence. Greater clarity on trade relations with
In its final rate announcement of the year, the
Inflation remains near the lower end of the Bank's neutral range. In October and November,
"Borrowing rates have moved back toward a more neutral setting – neither stimulating nor acting as a drag on economic activity. That's a return to more normal conditions," said Soper. "Rates can still move modestly in either direction depending on how the economy evolves, but the most likely scenario is a period of stability.
"For homebuyers and those approaching a mortgage renewal, stability matters. It provides greater certainty around financing costs and allows households to make housing decisions based on need and affordability, rather than trying to time interest rate moves."
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Forecast
In December, Royal LePage issued its 2026 Market Survey Forecast,4 projecting that the aggregate price of a home in
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
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REGIONAL SUMMARIES
The aggregate price of a home in the
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.4 per cent year over year to
"
Zigelstein also noted that the city's condominium market remains under downward pressure, driven by elevated inventory levels and a temporary retreat from investors. Pre-construction activity continues to stagnate, with new project launches limited as developers adopt a cautious stance in response to softer market conditions.
In the city of
"The market is expected to remain buyer-friendly in early 2026 and into the spring, supported by rising inventory levels and continued price softness. As interest rates settle near their floor and confidence begins to improve, market activity should gradually increase, helping to move conditions toward a more balanced state," said Zigelstein. "Prices are expected to stabilize rather than soar, as increased supply levels will continue to keep a lid on price appreciation, even as demand slowly returns."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in the
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 8.1 per cent year over year to
According to Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance, the fourth quarter of 2025 was marked by a clear duality. "In the general market – properties priced under
Sales activity, more nuanced than in the previous year, was driven primarily by first-time buyers and families seeking more space, often motivated by the high cost of renting. "This demand is supporting the affordable single-family home and plex segments, which remain undersupplied," noted Lefrançois. Conversely, the condominium market has faced significant challenges, particularly in urban cores. "Condo inventory has reached record levels in some neighbourhoods, weighing on the segment and making these properties harder to sell due to the oversupply of newly-built small condos," he added. As a result, price growth is expected to slow over the course of the coming year.
In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 5.6 per cent year over year to
Looking ahead to the spring of 2026, Lefrançois expects the market to maintain a healthy level of activity, with potentially stronger momentum in the first half of the year. He does, however, point to a gradual increase in overall inventory. "The single-family home market remains favourable for sellers, with absorption rates still high, while the lack of new construction continues to put upward pressure on prices," he explains. By contrast, he notes that the condominium market is shifting toward a buyers' market, due to a significant rise in inventory over the past three years, allowing for greater negotiation opportunities. Lefrançois also anticipates a slow but steady recovery in the luxury segment in 2026. Moderate price increases are expected across the broader market in the coming months, with the exception of condominiums, where prices are forecast to remain stable.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.2 per cent year over year to
"Overall sales activity declined in the final quarter of 2025, both year over year and from month to month, with softer momentum across all housing segments. Prices also edged lower compared to last year, reflecting cautious buyer sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainty," said
In the city of
Ryalls added that sales have declined most sharply for detached homes, reflecting softer demand for larger properties amid current market conditions. By contrast, attached and apartment-style properties have shown greater resilience, supported by desire for affordable housing options and steady demand from first-time buyers and downsizers.
"We're seeing some early-season activity beginning to emerge, which is an encouraging sign in the first weeks of a new year. As we look toward the spring market, we're cautiously optimistic about a modest increase in transaction volumes as buyer confidence gradually improves,"said Ryalls. "While activity is expected to pick up, prices are not, supported by improved demand but hampered slightly by inventory levels that are expected to increase as spring arrives."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.8 per cent year over year to
"With an early blast of winter, the typical year-end slowdown in
Rogan noted that buyers have been hesitant, given the current political and economic climate. Stable borrowing rates and improved affordability, however, are expected to spur market activity this spring.
"Last spring, the real estate market was quieter than usual, as many held off on their purchase plans in the lead up to the federal election. This year, I expect a return to more typical levels of activity," added Rogan. "Buyers are really in the driver's seat today. They have plenty of supply to choose from, interest rates are the lowest they've been in more than three years, and prices have remained relatively stable."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.7 per cent year over year to
The fourth quarter of 2025 was marked by a particularly dynamic and competitive market. Days on market fell sharply, from 58 days in December of 2024, to just 36 days in December of 2025. This situation, combined with a decline in new listings, created a highly favourable environment for sellers. "Sellers have high expectations, and the market is meeting them, reflecting a persistent lack of inventory that continues to put upward pressure on prices," observed
This momentum was driven largely by first-time purchasers. Encouraged by the interest rate cuts in 2025, these buyers have adapted to current price levels, focusing primarily on single-family homes in the
Looking ahead to early 2026 and the spring market, Fournier expects the pronounced lack of inventory to continue supporting price growth. She does, however, note that some stabilization may emerge in the single-family home segment. The sharp price increases seen over the past year have brought the median price of a single-family home close to the
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home remained flat, decreasing just 0.1 per cent year over year to
"Overall sales volume declined last quarter, falling by approximately 15 per cent compared to the same period last year. This slowdown reflects a more balanced market, as well as typical seasonal patterns that usually see both buyers and sellers take a step back toward the end of the year," said
Lyall noted that interest rate decreases have had limited impact on market activity to date. However, as borrowing costs stabilize, buyers may gain greater confidence that they are securing favourable mortgage terms. This added reassurance could help encourage more purchasers to return to the market and engage more actively as the spring season approaches.
"Early indicators for 2026 are cautiously encouraging, though sales remain below average. New listings are coming to market at a slower pace, which may be contributing to reduced activity, alongside inventory that carried over from December," added Lyall. "As seasonal conditions improve, market momentum is expected to build gradually heading into the spring."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.0 per cent year over year to
"The last quarter delivered a typical seasonal slowdown in activity, but it remained exceptionally strong when compared with pre-2024 norms," said
Shearer added that interprovincial migration has continued to moderate, with demand from local buyers within
"As we head into the spring market, buyers can expect a broader selection of available properties and greater negotiating power, while sellers will benefit from increased confidence that a well-priced home will attract interest and sell within a reasonable timeframe," said Shearer. "This balance should support steady activity and modest price growth as both sides of the market adjust to more normalized conditions."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.1 per cent year over year to
"The housing market in
Honsberger noted that despite the slower pace of sales, home prices remained resilient through the final quarter of the year, a sign that available supply continues to be absorbed without materially impacting pricing.
"Home prices rose across the province, highlighting the underlying strength of the market. Demand continues to be supported by factors like population growth, and buyers remain active in more attainable segments, including townhomes, semis and smaller detached properties," Honsberger added.
Looking ahead, Honsberger expects a period of gradual, sustained growth. "As we move into the spring of 2026, prices are expected to remain relatively flat, with only modest shifts in sales volumes. The market is settling into a more balanced and predictable phase, and while activity may remain subdued in the near term, confidence should continue to build among both buyers and sellers."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.6 per cent year over year to
"The
Froese noted that while overall activity has recently eased, market conditions continue to favour sellers due to limited inventory and steady buyer interest for well-priced homes.
"The strongest competition is still centred on homes priced around the regional average, and condos in particular have been performing well as affordability remains a major concern for buyers; the segment drawing particular interest from downsizers and first-time buyers.
Looking ahead, Froese expects the market to follow its traditional seasonal trajectory, with both inventory and activity increasing as the spring market approaches.
"The spring typically brings renewed momentum, and while buyer demand is expected to continue outpacing supply, it will likely do so at a more moderate pace than last year. Though tightening immigration levels and lingering economic uncertainty may temper demand, low interest rates, a resilient economy and affordability will keep buyers engaged," said Froese.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
The aggregate price of a home in
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.7 per cent year over year to
"
Ehman noted that limited supply continues to shape market conditions across the province and multiple-offer scenarios remain common, particularly for well-priced properties.
"There is growing concern that short-term policy measures, such as rent control, could further restrict housing supply if they are not paired with a coordinated, long-term approach from policymakers," Ehman added.
"Home values across the region remain on an upward trajectory. As we look toward 2026, sustained momentum and buyer activity will be dependent on supply-focused initiatives that support balanced, long-term growth."
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q4-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q4-2025
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