One in Three Cigarettes in the Region of The Americas in 2025 Is Illicit, New Study Finds
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A new report highlights that 31.9% of cigarettes consumed in the
Latin America andCanada region are from the illicit market, making it a global hotspot for illicit cigarette consumption, according to internal estimates and other third-party reports.Philip Morris International -
An estimated 77 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2025 across the 11 countries analyzed in the study, resulting in an estimated
USD 8.5 billion in lost tax revenues during the year.
The results of the study, conducted by
“Reports like this are relevant not only to highlight the illicit cigarette trade problem, but also to invite authorities to search for solutions, which promote technological innovation, intelligence gathering, and data-driven action,” said
Illicit consumption remains resilient and structurally high across the region, showing that extreme regulations and steep and abrupt tax increases can boost the illicit tobacco trade.
While some governments across the region have imposed heavier taxes and regulations on tobacco products, the current state of illicit trade in the region shows that demand for cheaper products is not disappearing. Instead, it is shifting toward illegal markets, where consumers can find a wide array of illicit cigarettes.
The implications extend beyond the tobacco sector, as the report estimates that illicit cigarette consumption resulted in an estimated
“These are resources that could otherwise fund public goods such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and enforcement capacity. Instead, they are captured by an illicit market,” said Hannappel.
Illicit trade is not only a fiscal issue – it is also a public health, security, and institutional challenge. Illegal products bypass controls, expose consumers to unknown risks, and weaken the effectiveness of regulation.
In several countries, illicit trade has reached levels that displace the legal market.
The 11 countries studied for this analysis are
The report was presented at an event hosted by the
Key Report Findings:
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Almost a third of cigarettes consumed in
Latin America andCanada are illicit. In 202531.9% of all cigarettes consumed in the region were illicit. -
A total of 77 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2025 in the 11 countries included in the report across
Latin America andCanada . Public enforcement reporting consistently links illicit cigarettes to wider criminal economies, including other contraband and illicit activities. -
Illicit trade is draining public finances at scale. An estimated
USD 8.5 billion in tax revenues was lost in 2025 due to illicit cigarette consumption. - Illicit trade proved more resilient than the legal market. Illicit cigarette use declined much less than total cigarette consumption in 2025.
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Brazil is the largest illicit cigarette market in the region. In 2025, it accounted for 41.8 billion illicit cigarettes, representing 54% of total illicit consumption across the 11 markets. -
Panama andEcuador have reached critical levels of illicit consumption. Illicit cigarettes account for approximately 89% of total consumption inPanama and 84% inEcuador . - Illicit Whites (cigarettes that are in most cases legally produced in a country, but with the sole intention of being smuggled into other markets) dominate the illegal market. They represent 73% of all illicit cigarettes, equivalent to approximately 56.5 billion cigarettes.
A detailed overview of the results, country profiles and methodology of the study is available here.
For more information about PMI’s illicit trade prevention efforts, visit PMI.com.
Note to editors
Definitions of illicit cigarette categories, as detailed in the
- Counterfeit: “Cigarettes that are illegally manufactured and sold by a party other than the original trademark owner.”
- Illicit whites: “Cigarettes that are usually manufactured legally in one country/market but which the evidence suggests have been smuggled across-borders during their transit to the destination market under review where they have limited or no legal distribution and are sold without payment of tax.”
- C&C: “Counterfeit and contraband, including illicit whites. Contraband refers to genuine products that have been either bought in a lower-tax country and which exceed legal border limits or acquired without taxes for export purposes to be illegally re-sold (for financial profit) in a higher priced market.”
- Other C&C: “Other C&C comprises contraband which does not fall within the Illicit Whites definition. It is often duty paid product. There may also be counterfeit of brands that are not trademark-owned by participant manufacturers.”
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