Rising Rates Stall Housing Market Momentum Just After Closed Home Sales Hit Highest Level Since 2022
- Redfin reports closed home sales jumped in May, reflecting April’s dipping mortgage rates and a strong labor market
- But pending home sales were flat, a real-time reflection of May’s rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, which dampened buyers’ appetites
- New listings rose to their highest level since 2022 as sellers tried to capture demand
There are several reasons home sales hit their highest level in nearly four years in May:
- Mortgage rates dipped. They dropped down to the 6.3% range for much of April after spiking in March. Sales that closed in May were made up of homebuying contracts that were signed—and rates that were locked in—during April.
- It’s a buyer’s market. There were hundreds of thousands more home sellers than buyers out there, allowing buyers to negotiate price reductions and seller concessions, helping deals cross the finish line despite high costs. Additionally, the labor market improved, making many Americans feel more confident about making a big purchase.
-
The Bay Area’s hot market contributed to the nationwide uptick in sales. In
San Jose , home sales soared 26% year over year in May, and inSan Francisco they jumped 19%. The AI boom is driving fierce homebuying demand in theBay Area as employees of AI companies collect big salaries and bonuses. -
South Florida contributed, too. Closed home sales surged 18% year over year inWest Palm Beach, FL , a market that’s typically driven by luxury buyers who are less concerned about high costs and economic jitters.
Pending Home Sales Flatten, Reflecting Real-Time Rising Rates
While closedhome sales jumped in May, pendinghome sales were essentially flat (0.1%) month over month. Sales that closed in May are a backwards-looking indicator, reflecting the period when mortgage rates fell temporarily in April.
Economic and global uncertainty also scared off would-be buyers: The ongoing
New Listings Rise, Pushing Overall Inventory to 6-
New listings of
The totalnumber of homes for sale ticked up 0.4% from a month earlier, to their highest level since 2020. Total inventory is at a six-year high because in addition to new sellers, there are a lot of stale listings sitting on the market after a sluggish start to the year.
High inventory is another reason home sales hit their highest level in nearly four years in May. When there are more homes on the market, there are more options for homebuying deals.
Home Prices Continue Climbing
The median
Fewer Buyers Are Getting Discounts
Just under three in five (59.8%) homes that sold in May went for less than their original list price. That’s a slightly smaller share than the month before, and marks the sixth straight month in which this share has declined. That means that while most homebuyers are still scoring discounts, it is becoming slightly less common.
Discounts are becoming a bit less common because while it’s still a big-time buyer’s market, the advantage buyers have over sellers has started shrinking. Another reason is that sellers are pricing their homes more realistically from the start. The median price for new listings in May was essentially flat (-0.1%) month over month, compared to the 2% increase in sale prices.
|
|
|||
|
|
Month-over-month change |
Year-over-year change |
|
|
Median sale price |
|
n/a |
2% |
|
Existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate |
4,531,570 |
2.8% |
7.8% |
|
Pending home sales |
350,173 |
0.1% |
4.5% |
|
Homes sold |
308,446 |
3.8% |
5.2% |
|
New listings |
396,181 |
1.4% |
1.2% |
|
Total homes for sale (active listings) |
1,483,839 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
Months of supply |
3.7 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Median days on market |
49 |
unchanged |
3 |
|
Share of homes that sold below original list price |
59.8% |
-0.6 ppts |
0.2 ppts |
|
Average sale-to-original-list-price ratio |
96.3% |
0.1 ppts |
unchanged |
|
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales |
13.6% |
0.1 ppts |
0.1 ppts |
|
Monthly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.44% |
0.11 ppts |
-0.38 ppts |
The figures below are based on a list of the 50 most populous
-
Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in
San Francisco (10.9%),St. Louis (6.7%) andPittsburgh (6.7%). They fell most inSan Jose, CA (-5.6%),Orlando, FL (-2.2%),Seattle (-0.9%) andSan Antonio (-0.9%). -
Pending home sales: Pending sales rose most in
West Palm Beach, FL (34.5%),San Francisco (21.4%) andMiami (16.2%). They fell most inHouston (-12.5%),Seattle (-7%) andTampa, FL (-3.4%). -
Closed home sales: Home sales rose most in
San Jose (25.7%),San Francisco (19.3%) andWest Palm Beach (18.3%). They fell most inDetroit (-14%),New York (-9.1%) andProvidence, RI (-8.4%). -
New listings: New listings rose most in
Philadelphia (11.5%),Minneapolis (9.5%) andBoston (8.6%). They fell most inSt. Louis (-17.9%),Denver (-10%) andSan Antonio (-9.2%). -
Active listings: Active listings rose most in
Cincinnati (15.1%),Boston (15%) andMontgomery County, PA (12.6%). They fell most inJacksonville, FL (-17.4%),Miami (-13.9%) andTampa, FL (-12.8%). -
Days on market: In
Jacksonville, FL the typical home that went under contract did so in 69 days, which was 6 days faster than a year earlier—the biggest decline among the metros analyzed. Next cameOrlando, FL (-6 days) andWest Palm Beach, FL (-4 days). Days on market increased the most inSan Antonio (+14 days),Houston (+11 days) andNashville, TN (+8 days).
To view the full report, including charts and additional metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/rising-rates-stall-housing-market-momentum
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Contact Redfin Journalist Services:
Angela Cherry
press@redfin.com
Source: Redfin