Keyera Provides Business Update and 2029 Growth Outlook Following Completion of Plains' NGL Acquisition
Establishing industry leading fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share 1 growth targets to 2029
Initial
Expanded Marketing segment is a strategic competitive advantage;
providing 2026 Marketing segment realized margin
1
guidance
Capital allocation priorities unchanged; updating 2026 guidance
"This combination strengthened Keyera's position as a fully integrated midstream company with greater efficiency and flexibility, enabling us to deliver more value to our customers," said
Delivering Industry Leading Fee-Based Adjusted EBITDA Per Share 1 Growth to 2029
Keyera is establishing pro-forma fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share1 growth targets to 2029. This growth is highly visible, and supported by sanctioned projects, identified synergies and capital-efficient growth initiatives that are already underway and aligned with the company's strategy.
The outlook is further supported by strong basin fundamentals. Oil, natural gas and NGL production across the
- From 2025 to 2027, Keyera expects fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share1 to increase by approximately 35% or an approximate 16% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), mainly reflecting the contributions from the Plains acquisition, realization of near-term synergies, 2026 fractionation capacity expansions, and continued filling of available capacity across the integrated system.
- Following this step change, Keyera is targeting a 7-8% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share1 CAGR from 2027 to 2029, supported by continued filling of available capacity, the completion of major growth projects currently underway and further optimization of the combined platform.
- Beyond 2029, the company has identified several strategic growth opportunities that will further enhance its integrated value-chain and continue to grow fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share1.
Further detail on the initiatives supporting this outlook is provided in the corporate presentation which will be released and discussed during the company's webcast later this morning.
Initial
Keyera has substantially realized its initial
Based on progress achieved to date, Keyera now expects total near-term annual run-rate synergies to range from
Beyond these near-term synergies, the company expects to identify significant additional opportunities driven primarily by operating efficiencies, supply chain optimization, maintenance capital improvements and new capital-efficient growth projects across the combined platform. These opportunities are not fully reflected in the company's updated growth targets.
As integration progresses and the company spends more time with the assets and teams, Keyera expects to further identify, categorize and define these opportunities and will provide updates to the market once they are more clearly established.
Expanded Marketing Segment Is a Strategic Competitive Advantage
Keyera's Marketing segment remains a key differentiator, driving outsized value creation. The company's logistics capabilities and market expertise help attract additional volumes across the integrated system by providing customers with access to higher-value markets and stronger netbacks.
The segment consistently allows the company to generate strong corporate Returns on
With the addition of
The expanded Marketing portfolio will be managed under the same disciplined risk management framework that has underpinned Keyera's historical Marketing performance.
2026 Marketing Segment Guidance
For 2026, Keyera expects Marketing realized margin1 to be between
The outlook reflects more typical isooctane premium assumptions for the balance of the year, providing room for potential upside should supportive market fundamentals persist.
The company has locked in approximately 90% of expected 2026 frac spread margins at attractive levels through its structured hedging program. These positions include legacy hedges previously established by Plains covering the next 12 months commencing in June, together with opportunistic hedges executed under Keyera's risk management program following closing. In addition, the company has locked in approximately 50% of expected 2027 frac spread exposure at forward levels that remain attractive by historical standards, providing increased visibility into future Marketing cash flows.
The company intends to re-introduce a long-term baseline Marketing realized margin1 guidance range once the combined Marketing platforms have operated together for a period of time.
Capital Allocation Priorities Unchanged
Keyera remains committed to allocating capital in the most value-accretive manner for shareholders.
The company will continue to prioritize:
-
Preserving financial strength and flexibility: Maintaining investment grade credit ratings and targeting net debt to adjusted EBITDA1,2 of 2.5 to 3.0 times. Leverage is expected to return to within this target range around the end of 2027.
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Investing for margin growth and cash flow stability: Prioritizing capital investments that strengthen and extend the integrated value chain and are expected to generate a stand-alone Return on
Invested Capital 1 of at least 10% to 15%, before considering additional integration benefits. - Sustainable dividend growth: Maintaining a conservative payout ratio1 of 50% to 70% of distributable cash flow ("DCF") per share1, supported by continued growth in fee-based adjusted EBITDA1.
2026 Guidance
Keyera's 2026 outlook reflects the partial-year contribution of the Plains assets following closing.
- Growth capital spending of
$550 million to$625 million , directed mainly toward advancing previously announced fractionation capacity expansions, theACE Rail Terminal andKAPS Zone 4 - Maintenance capital of
$240 million to$260 million , which includes planned turnarounds at Empress plants - Cash taxes of approximately
$70 million to$90 million
Summary
With a stronger combined platform, increased synergies and clearly defined growth visibility through 2029, Keyera is positioned to deliver industry-leading fee-based adjusted EBITDA1 growth. Supported by disciplined capital allocation, the company remains focused on delivering long-term value for customers and shareholders.
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Notes: |
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1. |
Is not a standard measure under GAAP or is an Other Financial Measure as specified under National Instrument 52-112. See section titled "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" and "Forward-Looking Information" of this news release for additional information. |
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2. |
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA calculation for covenant test purposes excludes 100% of the company's subordinated hybrid notes. |
Business Update and 2029 Growth Outlook Webcast and Conference Call Details
Date:
Time:
A live webcast of the conference call can be accessed here or through Keyera's website at Events & Presentations - Keyera. Shortly after the call, a webcast archive will be posted on Keyera's website.
The audio-only conference call be accessed by dialing 1-800-990-2777 or 1-416-855-9085 and entering conference call ID 34158.
About
Additional Information
For more information about
Email: ir@keyera.com
Telephone: 1-403-205-7670
Toll free: 1-888-699-4853
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
This news release refers to certain financial and other measures that are not determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Measures such as distributable cash flow, distributable cash flow per share, payout ratio, realized margin (including realized margin for the Marketing segment), EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, fee-based realized margin, fee-based adjusted EBITDA, fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share and return on invested capital (ROIC) are not standard measures under GAAP or are supplementary financial measures, and as a result, may not be comparable to similar measures reported by other entities. Management believes that these non-GAAP and other financial measures facilitate the understanding of Keyera's results of operations, leverage, liquidity and financial position. These measures do not have any standardized meaning under GAAP and therefore, should not be considered in isolation, or used in substitution for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. For additional information on these non-GAAP and other financial measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures for Keyera's historical non-GAAP financial measures, refer to Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) for the periods ended
While fee-based adjusted EBITDA and CAGR for fee-based adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP or other financial measures that have been previously disclosed by Keyera, fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share and the related CAGR calculation are new metrics that have been disclosed in this news release and therefore, cannot be incorporated by reference to the MD&A. Fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share is calculated as follows:
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Fee-Based Adjusted EBITDA per Share |
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For the years ended |
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(Thousands of Canadian dollars, except per share amounts) |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
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Realized Margin – Fee-Based |
1,032,672 |
970,308 |
890,644 |
752,684 |
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Less: |
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General and administrative expenses |
(128,612) |
(117,142) |
(106,494) |
(82,843) |
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Long-term incentive plan expense |
(43,796) |
(62,450) |
(50,909) |
(33,284) |
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Fee-Based Adjusted EBITDA |
860,264 |
790,716 |
733,241 |
636,557 |
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Weighted-Average Number of Shares - Basic |
229,205 |
229,153 |
229,153 |
221,290 |
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Fee-Based Adjusted EBITDA per Share |
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For additional information related to fee-based adjusted EBITDA, a reconciliation of fee-based realized margin to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, operating margin for the Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments, and the methodology used to derive Keyera's compound annual growth rate calculations, refer to the sections of the MD&A titled "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures".
Forward-Looking Information
This press release contains certain statements that constitute "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking information"). Forward-looking information is typically identified by words such as "will", "should", "outlook", "continue", "expect", "intend", "target", "remain", "maintain" and similar words or expressions, including the negatives or variations thereof. All statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this document are forward-looking information, including, without limitation, statements regarding the expected growth of oil, natural gas and NGL production across the
All forward-looking information reflects Keyera's beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the applicable forward-looking information is made and in light of Keyera's current expectations with respect to such things as the outlook for general economic trends, industry trends, commodity prices, and the integrity and the reliability of Keyera's assets. All forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, events, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking information and other risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Keyera. Further information about the factors affecting forward-looking information and management's assumptions and analysis thereof is available in Keyera's Management's Discussion and Analysis for the year ended
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive and they should not unduly rely on the forward-looking information included in this press release. Further, readers are cautioned that the forward-looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this press release. Unless required by law, Keyera does not intend and does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking information. All forward-looking information contained in this press release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
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