Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Pulse Survey Reveals Bullish Sentiment Despite Drop in Optimism
Inflation, election concerns mount
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(Graphic: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)
- Bullishness remained steady. Three out of five investors (60%) are bullish this quarter—consistent with last quarter.
- Fewer investors are optimistic about the economy. Roughly half(53%) agree that the Fed will be able to execute a “soft landing,”down 7 percentage points from last quarter.
- Yet, fewer investors are making changes to their portfolio. Half of investors (50%) said they do not plan to make any changes to their portfolios for the next six months, significantly more than last quarter (42%). Additionally, only 10% plan on moving out of their current positions and into cash, down 4% from Q1.
- Inflation and election concerns have increased. Over half (53%) said that they were most concerned about inflation, up from 49%. Unease about the 2024 election ticked up to 31% from 26%.
“The US stock market is coming off one of its strongest first quarters of the past 20 years, and so it should not be too large a surprise to see it pull back,” said
The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for the second quarter of 2024:
- IT – Amid continued interest in chipmakers and AI, technology remained the top choice for investors this quarter.
- Energy – After Q1 showed glimpses of recovery from 2023, interest in energy held steady as a second choice for investors as oil prices rallied to multi-month highs.
- Health care – Perhaps utilized as a hedge, the traditionally defensive health care sector secured the third spot at 36%.
About the Survey
This wave of the survey was conducted from
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Referenced Data
When it comes to the current market are you? |
||
|
Q1’24 |
Q2’ 24 |
Bullish |
60% |
60% |
Bearish |
40% |
40% |
Please rate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements: |
||
|
Q1’24 |
Q2’24 |
Top 2 |
60% |
53% |
Strongly agree |
17% |
15% |
Somewhat agree |
43% |
38% |
Neither agree nor disagree |
25% |
26% |
Somewhat disagree |
12% |
14% |
Strongly disagree |
3% |
7% |
Bottom 2 |
15% |
21% |
When it comes to your portfolio for the next six months are you considering any of the following strategies? |
||
|
Q1’24 |
Q2 ‘24 |
Make no changes to my portfolio |
42% |
50% |
Change the allocations in my portfolio |
26% |
24% |
Move out of cash and in to new positions |
18% |
14% |
Move out of current positions and in to cash |
14% |
10% |
Other |
0% |
2% |
Which of the following are you most concerned about when it comes to your portfolio? (Top 2) |
||
|
Q1’24 |
Q2 ‘24 |
Inflation |
49% |
53% |
2024 election |
26% |
31% |
A recession |
24% |
20% |
Market volatility |
22% |
22% |
Geopolitical conflict |
18% |
16% |
Earnings |
16% |
13% |
Fed monetary policy |
14% |
10% |
Energy costs |
13% |
13% |
Narrow market driven by mega-caps |
4% |
3% |
None |
1% |
2% |
What industries do you think offer the most potential this quarter? (Top three) |
||
Q1’24 |
Q2’24 |
|
Information technology |
53% |
52% |
Energy |
45% |
43% |
Health care |
38% |
36% |
Real estate |
29% |
30% |
Financials |
28% |
27% |
Utilities |
25% |
24% |
Communication services |
20% |
20% |
Industrials |
19% |
20% |
Consumer staples |
18% |
20% |
Materials |
14% |
16% |
Consumer discretionary |
11% |
12% |
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418137302/en/
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Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management