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Comerica Bank's Texas Index Ticks Up

DALLAS, Jan. 30, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in November to 141.0. November's index reading was 46 points, or 48 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 135.2 points for all of 2018, 6.3 points above the average for 2017. October's index reading was 140.4.

Comerica logo. (PRNewsFoto/Comerica Bank) (PRNewsfoto/Comerica Bank)

The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index improved again in November, extending its current winning streak to three consecutive months. The Texas Index has declined for only three months since September 2017. The recent performance of the nine components of the index has been mixed. However, job creation, a very powerful economic force, has been consistent, allowing the state economy to expand even with the unsteady performance of some of the other components. For the 12 months ending in November, Texas payroll employment was up by 2.6 percent, well above the U.S. average of 1.5 percent. The weakest index component over 2019 has been the rig count, reflecting the erosion of investor sentiment in the energy sector. The rig count sub-index has now declined for 11 consecutive months through November. In November, 4 out of 9 index components were positive. They were payroll employment, housing starts, house prices and state sales tax revenue. The negative components for November were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity demand, rig count, total state trade and hotel occupancy. In January, the decline in the Texas rig count appears to be slowing. Firmer crude oil prices through mid-January were a positive sign for drilling activity. However, at the end of January oil prices have dipped again, now down below $53 per barrel for WTI.

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking center network throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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