Redfin Reports Housing Payments Have Dropped to Their Lowest Level Since January. But Home Sales Are Still Falling.
Pending home sales are falling despite declining housing payments because some homebuyers are hoping mortgage rates fall further before they make a move, and others are waiting for clarity on the new NAR rules
But declining housing payments have yet to improve home sales. Pending homes sales fell 8.4% year over year, the biggest decline in nearly a year. Some would-be homebuyers are on the sidelines because they’re still priced out of the market, and are waiting for mortgage rates to fall further. Redfin agents are also reporting that some buyers are waiting for more clarity on what the new NAR rules mean for real estate agent fees, and others are waiting to buy until after the presidential election.
“There is demand for desirable, move-in ready listings, but some house hunters are in a holding pattern because the industry is in flux,” said
Mortgage rates may not come down much more than they already have. That’s because markets have already priced in interest-rate cuts from the Fed, starting in September and going through 2025. If the cuts are smaller and slower than expected, mortgage rates would rise from where they are today. If the Fed cuts faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to decline further. If rates do fall substantially more than they already have, that could push up demand, competition and home prices.
There are some signals that more prospective buyers are touring homes and prepping to purchase, even if they’re not yet buying. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over week. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is up 4% from a month ago, and is near its highest level since May.
The supply of homes for sale is increasing modestly. New listings of homes for sale are up 3.7% year over year, on par with increases over the last few months, and total listings are up 16.6%. Total supply is rising partly because some homeowners who had been locked in by their relatively low mortgage rates are selling now that rates have come down a bit. Also, sluggish homebuyer demand is causing unsold listings to pile up.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year
|
Source |
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.38% ( |
Near lowest level since spring 2023 |
Down from 7.06% |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.35% (week ending |
Lowest level since |
Down from 7.18% |
Freddie Mac |
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Increased 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending |
Down 4% |
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 4% from a month earlier; near highest level since May
(as of week ending |
Down 7% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
Touring activity |
|
Down 4% from the start of the year (as of
(Down mostly due to |
At this time last year, it was down 4% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Up 6% from a month earlier (as of |
unchanged |
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ |
|||
|
Four weeks ending |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
3.9% |
About |
Median asking price |
|
5.3% |
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
|
-1% |
Lowest level since January; |
Pending sales |
78,666 |
-8.4% |
Biggest decline since |
New listings |
87,132 |
3.7% |
|
Active listings |
993,565 |
16.6% |
Smallest increase since April |
Months of supply |
3.6 |
+0.8 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
35.3% |
Down from 39% |
|
Median days on market |
36 |
+6 days |
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
28.1% |
Down from 33% |
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.6% |
+1.3 pts. |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.1% |
-0.5 pts. |
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
Median sale price |
|
|
Declined in 7 metros |
Pending sales |
|
|
Increased in 16 metros |
New listings |
|
|
Declined in 13 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-dropping-sales-declining
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
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For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the
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Source: Redfin