Illicit Cigarettes in European Union at Highest Level Since 2015, KPMG Study Shows
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Smokers in the
European Union (EU) consumed 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes in 2024, a 10.8% increase versus 2023, with serious repercussions for tax revenues, crime rates, and public health. -
France , the largest illicit market inEurope , reached 18.7 billion illicit cigarettes consumed last year, 37.6% of total consumption. Adding 10.2 ppt year-on-year,the Netherlands saw the largest increase in illicit cigarettes share, which doubled to 17.9% of total consumption. -
Countries such as
Bulgaria ,Greece ,Italy and Portugal—andUkraine , outside the EU—have shown sizeable decreases in illicit consumption in 2024.Greece andUkraine , in particular, saw as much as 30% declines vs. 2023. - PMI calls for evidence-based regulation, predictable fiscal regimes, and strict law enforcement to address the roots of illicit trade while promoting economic stability and public health. Evidence shows that excessive tobacco control policies may be driving smokers to the black market.
PMI believes that exacerbating the issue are steep and abrupt tax increases, benefitting criminals who supply unregulated, untaxed and inferior products, including counterfeits, at a lower price. To combat this growing threat, PMI urges the adoption of evidence-based regulation with balanced and predictable taxation through tax calendars, continued public-private collaboration and enhanced support of regional and national law enforcement agencies, as criminal organizations dealing in illicit cigarettes have cemented their presence in higher-priced Western European countries.
According to the 2024
“The illicit tobacco trade threatens the European economy, public health, security and social stability; today, higher-taxed and higher-priced markets such as
The 2024
In contrast, countries such as
“Predictable tax regimes and robust support for local law enforcement actions have proven an effective policy recipe: We now know how to effectively counter the criminal entities that engage in the illicit manufacturing, distribution, and sale of consumer products. Other countries in the region should emulate that approach to get control over this dangerous trend,” said
Illicit trade affects the whole of
Across the 38 European countries included in KPMG’s study (the 27 EU member states, as well as
Illicit cigarette volumes in the
This is the 19th consecutive year that
Heated tobacco products
For the first time, the
The study reveals that contraband consumption stood at 0.4 billion sticks (the consumables used in heated tobacco devices) in 2024, representing 0.9% of total consumption. The highest contraband volumes were found in
“Policymakers must recognize that repeating the policy mistakes that drive the illicit cigarette market when regulating smoke-free products—excessive and market-distorting taxation, extreme control measures such as bans, and inadequate law enforcement against illicit activities across the value chain—may and will lead to the same disaster we see today in the cigarette sector in countries adopting such policies, and that we are starting to see in countries banning the legal sale of smoke-free products,” said Andolina.
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Illicit trade does not just affect the people who consume these products. It fuels ruthless criminal gangs, typically impacting the most vulnerable communities and populations. It deprives governments of critical revenues needed to fund public services, including security, defense and social services. And its proceeds facilitate other serious crimes such as human trafficking, corruption, and money laundering.
For PMI, eliminating the illicit tobacco and nicotine trade has been a long-standing priority. The company implements preventive and protective measures and works with the public and private sectors to advance efforts to address this global issue.
As PMI progresses on its commitment to deliver a smoke-free future—a future without cigarettes, by far the most harmful way to consume nicotine—it is increasing efforts to secure its supply chain and the products it sells and to protect consumers and its brands from smugglers and counterfeiters. PMI works closely with law enforcement agencies and other organizations worldwide to root out and shut down illegal activities, including counterfeiting and smuggling.
A detailed overview of the results, country profiles and methodology of the
For more information about PMI’s illicit trade prevention efforts, visit PMI.com.
Note to editors
Definitions of illicit cigarette categories, as detailed in the
- Counterfeit: “Cigarettes that are illegally manufactured and sold by a party other than the original trademark owner.”
- Illicit whites: “Cigarettes that are usually manufactured legally in one country/market but which the evidence suggests have been smuggled across-borders during their transit to the destination market under review where they have limited or no legal distribution and are sold without payment of tax.”
- C&C: “Counterfeit and contraband, including illicit whites. Contraband refers to genuine products that have been either bought in a lower-tax country and which exceed legal border limits or acquired without taxes for export purposes to be illegally re-sold (for financial profit) in a higher priced market.”
- Other C&C: “Other C&C comprises contraband which does not fall within the Illicit Whites definition. It is often Duty Paid product from both EU27 and non-EU27 countries. There may also be counterfeit of brands that are not trademark-owned by participant manufacturers.”
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E. david.fraser@pmi.com
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