June’s Zeta Economic Index Highlights Consumer Recalibration as Retail Cools
Consumers in Holding Pattern as Trade War Pause Nears its End
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June’s data reflects consumers in a deliberate recalibration. Retail interest cooled by 5.1 points month-over-month, as springtime pull-forwards normalized. Credit Line Expansion Intent climbed 7.2%, healthy by historical standards but off its recent peak. Time Browsing Online ticked up 2.0%, driven largely by deal-seeking and summer planning, while major life moves remained on ice, with the New Mover Index down 18.8%. With the trade-war pause nearing its end, households are balancing selective spending with financial resilience—supported by rising Job Market Sentiment, which edged up 2.3% MoM even as overall momentum cools.
“The June ZEI isn’t a downturn – it's a recalibration,” said
Broad-Based Sector Softening Reflects Consumer Selectivity
Beyond retail's notable decline, Financial Services and Technology also softened significantly, declining 3.5 and 2.5 points respectively, indicating reduced consumer engagement with banking, insurance, and digital products. Entertainment dropped 2.8 points, while Travel slipped by 0.9 points, which are both modest declines that may reflect shifting summer priorities.
The only sectors to register gains were Healthcare, up 1.8 points, and Dining, which saw a minor 1.1-point lift. This pattern suggests consumers are maintaining engagement across categories but with notably less intensity and greater selectivity, which is consistent with broader signs of economic moderation.
The Zeta Economic Index is publicly available here and is provided as a complimentary service. It should not be considered investment advice or be relied upon to make investment decisions.
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