MEG Energy Recommends that Shareholders Reject the Revised Strathcona Offer; Reaffirms Support for the Cenovus Transaction
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MEG's Board of Directors unanimously recommends that MEG Shareholders vote FOR the Cenovus Transaction
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Revised Strathcona Offer exposes MEG Shareholders to inferior assets, an unproven track record, an overvalued
Strathcona share price, significant overhang risk, and governance risk
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The Special Distribution described in the Revised Strathcona Offer results in a weaker balance sheet and increased financial risk for the combined company compared to the Initial Strathcona Offer
- Cenovus Transaction accelerates value realization from MEG's standalone plan, provides shareholders with substantial cash and highly liquid share consideration with lower risk and upside participation in long-term value creation potential
All amounts in Canadian dollars unless specified.
On
The Cenovus Transaction provides MEG Shareholders with choice to elect their preferred form of consideration and is to be completed by way of a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (
i.
ii. 1.325 Cenovus common shares (each whole share, a "Cenovus Share") per MEG share; or
iii. a combination thereof,
in all cases, subject to rounding and proration based on the maximum amount of cash and the maximum amount of Cenovus Shares to be provided to MEG Shareholders, as set out in the Arrangement Agreement.
On a fully pro-rated basis, consideration per MEG Share represents approximately
On
"The Revised Strathcona Offer remains fundamentally unattractive for MEG shareholders because it fails to address or adequately compensate for the significant risks embedded in Strathcona Shares," said
McFarland continued: "In contrast, the Cenovus Transaction delivers an attractive price, upside potential, substantial cash, and value certainty that MEG Shareholders deserve. The Board unanimously recommends that MEG Shareholders vote FOR the Cenovus Transaction."
"Through our engagement with MEG Shareholders, we have heard overwhelming acknowledgement of the industrial logic of the Cenovus Transaction," said
Reasons to REJECT the Revised Strathcona Offer
The Revised Strathcona Offer consists of unattractive all-share consideration. The MEG Board recommends that MEG Shareholders REJECT the Revised Strathcona Offer for the following key reasons:
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Inferior Assets and Unproven
Track Record .MEG's Christina Lake is a best-in-class SAGD project with top quartile low steam-oil ratio ("SOR"), cost structure, and significant resource portfolio depth.Strathcona , on the other hand, owns a portfolio of much smaller, geographically dispersed assets with a higher cost structure and oil sands assets that operate at SORs approximately 60% higher than those atChristina Lake .Strathcona has built its asset portfolio through acquisitions and has only demonstrated organic production growth in its now-divestedMontney segment, noting that production from its heavy oil segment has decreased by 16% from the levels observed when its acquisitions occurred. -
Overvalued Strathcona Shares. Strathcona Shares lack trading liquidity, making the quoted market price an unreliable indicator of value and the current quoted price suggests an overvaluation of Strathcona Shares. Third party research notes that
Strathcona is "trading at a ~30% premium to its NAV, versus the median E&P in our coverage trades at a discount"1 and, as ofSeptember 12, 2025 , the median target price of Strathcona Shares among equity research analysts coveringStrathcona was below the market-observed trading price of Strathcona Shares. -
Higher Leverage. Payment of the
$2.142 billion Special Distribution described in the Revised Strathcona Offer would significantly increaseStrathcona's financial leverage compared to the initial unsolicited offer and the Cenovus Transaction. With consideration now entirely in Strathcona Shares, MEG Shareholders would be fully exposed to a riskier, more highly leveraged combined company. -
Significant Overhang Risk.
Waterous Energy Fund ("WEF") has a large, concentrated ownership position which creates material risk of share price decline for the combined company. Having been invested as early as 2016, WEF will soon need to return capital to its limited partner investors and has stated that it intends to do so by distributing Strathcona Shares, which could be subsequently sold, depressing their value.
"We're going to have to return all of the capital to our investors roughly over the next three years."
- WEF's Managing Partner and CEO,
While
- Governance Risk. WEF would control 48% of the combined company, giving it unique incentives and outsized influence. WEF's obligations to its limited partner investors present a significant conflict of interest and could result in strategic decisions for the combined company that may not reflect the best interests of minority shareholders, including current MEG Shareholders.
1. Third party equity research report published on |
Reasons to Vote FOR the Cenovus Transaction
The MEG Board's reasons for reaffirming its recommendation to vote FOR the resolution approving the Cenovus Transaction include:
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Preferred Strategic Alternative After Comprehensive Review of All Alternatives. The Cenovus Transaction was determined to be the preferred strategic alternative to MEG Shareholders following a comprehensive review process. This included assessing a broad range of potential alternatives, including the "Initial Strathcona Offer", against MEG's standalone business plan.
The process involved outreach to over 15 parties, including oil and gas industry participants and financial sponsors inCanada , theU.S. , and internationally, and the publicly announced process gave other parties the opportunity to express interest. MEG received three non-binding proposals, including one from Cenovus. Through rigorous negotiations, MEG secured an increase in the Cenovus offer from$25.00 to$27.25 per MEG Share (at announcement) and increased the equity component from 20% to 25%. -
Participation in Realization of Synergies. The Arrangement Agreement provides MEG Shareholders continued ownership in a prominent SAGD oil sands company and the ability to participate in future upside through ownership in Cenovus, an industry-leading producer with significant scale and growth potential. The combined company will benefit from greater efficiencies and significant corporate, commercial, operational and developmental synergies due to the strong asset fit in the
Athabasca region. Cenovus expects to realize approximately$150 million in near-term annual synergies, increasing to over$400 million per year in 2028 and beyond. -
Superior Upside Potential in Cenovus Shares. Based on median equity research analyst target prices, Cenovus Shares offer a 24% upside to their trading price as of
September 12, 2025 , compared to the 3% downside price target for Strathcona Shares, representing a difference of 27%. Moreover, 100% of equity research analysts covering Cenovus rate Cenovus Shares with a "buy" recommendation, compared to just 20% for Strathcona Shares. Unlike the Revised Strathcona Offer, the Cenovus Transaction offers MEG Shareholders either the combination of cash and shares, or the option to choose their preferred form of consideration. -
Accelerates MEG's Standalone Value. The Arrangement Agreement brings forward substantial value from MEG's standalone business plan, including the expansion project at
Christina Lake . Cenovus plans to spend an incremental~$400 million of capital between 2026-2028 to accelerate value and deliver production capacity of 150,000 bpd atChristina Lake by 2028, 15,000 bpd above what is expected of the standalone MEG business plan. -
Certainty of Value and Robust Liquidity
: The Cenovus Transaction offers a high degree of value certainty, with 73% of the value of total consideration in cash and 27% in highly liquid Cenovus Shares, as of
September 12, 2025 . Cenovus Shares will be freely tradeable immediately upon closing. Cenovus Shares have averaged over$450 million in daily trading value year-to-date in 2025, ensuring MEG Shareholders benefit from immediate and reliable liquidity.
Additional information can be found in the Investor Presentation, which is available at www.megenergy.com/offer-update.
Recommendation of the MEG Board
The MEG Board's determination to REJECT the Revised Strathcona Offer followed careful consideration, including advice from its external financial and legal advisors, the unanimous recommendation of the
To REJECT the Revised Strathcona Offer, simply take NO ACTION. If you have tendered your MEG Shares to the Revised Strathcona Offer and wish to withdraw, ask your broker or contact
Cenovus Transaction Meeting and Voting Details
MEG Shareholders will vote on the Cenovus Transaction at a special meeting (the "Meeting") that will be held on
MEG filed an information circular ("Circular") on
Accompanying the Circular is a letter of transmittal and election form containing instructions on how MEG Shareholders can elect their consideration and deposit their MEG Shares. Failure to complete a letter of transmittal and election form prior to the election deadline, being
The information provided herein is supplemental to the information contained in the Circular filed on
Advisors
Forward-Looking Information
Certain statements contained in this news release may contain forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively, "forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking information is frequently characterized by words such as "estimate", "will", "would", "believe", "plan", "expected", "potential", and other similar words or statements that certain events or conditions "likely", "may", "should", "would", "might" or "could" occur. Forward-looking information is often, but not always, identified by such words. Forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements, many of which are beyond MEG's control. MEG believes the expectations reflected in the forward-looking information are reasonable but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking information included in this news release should not be unduly relied upon. Specific forward-looking information contained in this news release includes, among other, statement pertaining to the following: the anticipated results of and risks associated with accepting the Revised Strathcona Offer, including exposing MEG Shareholders to inferior assets, an overvalued Strathcona Share price, exposure to a more highly leveraged combined company, governance risks and overhang risks; the Special Distribution including the eligibility of MEG Shareholders to receive the Special Distribution, the anticipated amount per Strathcona Share and per MEG Share of the Special Distribution, the anticipated effects of the Special Distribution on the combined company and the Strathcona Share price if the Revised Strathcona Offer is accepted and the anticipated increase in
Forward-looking information is based on, among other things, MEG's expectations regarding its future, growth, results of operations, production, future capital and other expenditures (including the amount, nature and sources of funding thereof), competitive advantages, plans for and results of drilling activity, environmental matters, business prospects and opportunities. Such forward-looking information reflects MEG's current beliefs and assumptions and is based on information currently available to it.
With respect to forward-looking information contained in this news release, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the Special Distribution, including the necessary conditions and approvals;
Some of the risks that could affect MEG's future results and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking information include: the risk that the Cenovus Transaction may be varied, accelerated or terminated in certain circumstances; risks relating to the outcome of the Cenovus Transaction, including the risks associated with approval at the Meeting; the risk that the conditions to the Cenovus Transaction may not be satisfied, or to the extent permitted, waived, including the risk that required regulatory approvals may not be received in a timely manner or at all; the risk that operating results will differ from what is currently anticipated; MEG's status and stage of development; the concentration of MEG's production in a single project; the majority of MEG's total reserves and contingent resources are non-producing and/or undeveloped; the uncertainty of reserve and resource estimates; long-term reliance on third parties; the effect or outcome of litigation; the effect of any diluent supply constraints and increases in the cost thereof; the potential delays of and costs of overruns on projects and future expansions of MEG's assets; operational hazards; competition for, among other things, capital, the acquisition of reserves and resources, pipeline capacity and skilled personnel; risks inherent in the bitumen recovery process; changes to royalty regimes; the failure of MEG to meet specific requirements in respect of its oil sands leases; claims made by Indigenous peoples; unforeseen title defects and changes to the mineral tenure framework; risks arising from future acquisition activities; sufficiency of funds; fluctuations in market prices for crude oil, natural gas, electricity and bitumen blend; future sources of insurance for MEG's property and operations; public health crises, similar to the COVID-19 pandemic, including weakness and volatility of crude oil and other petroleum products prices from decreased global demand resulting from public health crises; risk of war (including the conflicts between
The foregoing list of risks, uncertainties and factors is not exhaustive. The effect of any one risk, uncertainty or factor on particular forward-looking information is not determinable with certainty as these factors are independent, and management's future course of action would depend on an assessment of all available information at that time. Although, based on information available to MEG on the date of this news release, MEG believes that the expectations in and assumptions used in such forward-looking information are reasonable, MEG gives no assurances as to future results, levels of activity or achievements and cannot make assurances that actual results will be consistent with such forward-looking information. Accordingly, readers are cautioned that the actual results achieved may vary from the forward-looking information provided herein and that the variations may be material. Readers are also cautioned that the foregoing list of assumptions, risks and factors is not exhaustive.
Further information regarding the assumptions and risks inherent in the making of forward-looking statements and in respect of the Cenovus Transaction can be found under the heading "Risk Factors" in MEG's annual information form dated
The forward-looking information included in this news release is expressly qualified in its entirety by the foregoing cautionary statements. Unless otherwise stated, the forward-looking information included in this news release is made as of the date of this news release and MEG assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by applicable Canadian securities laws. Due to the risks, uncertainties and assumptions inherent in forward-looking information, readers should not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information.
For further information:
Shareholder Questions:
MEG Investor Relations, 403.767.0515, invest@megenergy.com
Media Questions:
MEG Media Relations, 403.775.1131, media@megenergy.com
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