TotalEnergies: Third Quarter 2025: Main Indicators
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) third quarter 2025 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3Q25 |
2Q25 |
1Q25 |
4Q24 |
3Q24 |
€/$ |
|
1.17 |
1.13 |
1.05 |
1.07 |
1.10 |
Brent |
($/b) |
69.1 |
67.9 |
75.7 |
74.7 |
80.3 |
Average liquids price * (1) |
($/b) |
66.5 |
65.6 |
72.2 |
71.8 |
77.0 |
Average gas price * (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
5.50 |
5.63 |
6.60 |
6.26 |
5.78 |
Average LNG price ** (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
8.91 |
9.10 |
10.00 |
10.37 |
9.91 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** |
($/t) |
63.0 |
35.3 |
29.4 |
25.9 |
15.4 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
***This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/t), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of
(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates
-
Oil and gas production for the third quarter 2025 is expected to be at 2.5 Mboe/d, growing 4% year-on-year, above the annual and quarterly guidance of more than 3% and despite the planned turnaround (~-50kboe/d) at
Ichthys LNG . - Compared to second quarter 2025, Exploration & Production results and cash flow should outpace the E&P production growth of 4% thanks to the accretive impact of the new barrels.
-
Integrated LNG cash flow should be in line with the second quarter 2025 in a similar environment (
~$9 /Mbtu), while the Integrated LNG results will be impacted by the planned turnaround atIchthys LNG . -
Integrated Power results and cash flow are expected to be in line with the second quarter 2025 and within the annual guidance. -
Downstream results and cash flow are expected to improve by
$400 to$600 million year-on-year reflecting the improvement of the refining margin inEurope (ERM growing to$63 /t vs$15 /t in the third quarter 2024) despite the turnarounds atAntwerp and Port Arthur. -
Despite a
$10/b drop in oil price year-on-year, the results and cash flow from business segments should increase within a range of 0 to 5% thanks to the accretive hydrocarbon production growth and the improved results of the Downstream. -
Net investments are expected to be around
$3 billion for the quarter benefiting from around$500 million in divestments net of acquisitions. -
A positive contribution from working capital of
$1 to$2 billion is anticipated. - The gearing ratio should improve by 0.5 to 1% compared to the end of the second quarter 2025.
2025 Sensitivities* |
||||||
|
Change |
Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income |
Estimated impact on cash flow from operations |
|||
Dollar |
+/- 0.1 $ per € |
-/+ 0.1 B$ |
~0 B$ |
|||
Average liquids price ** |
+/- 10 $/b |
+/- 2.3 B$ |
+/- 2.8 B$ |
|||
European gas price – TTF |
+/- 2 $/Mbtu |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
|||
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
+/- 10 $/t |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
+/- 0.5 B$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2025. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 70-80 $/b Brent environment.
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of 2025 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law,
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, technological innovations, meteorological conditions and events, as well as socio-demographic, economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Readers are cautioned not to consider forward-looking statements as accurate, but as an expression of the Company’s views only as of the date this document is published.
The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by
Additionally, the developments of climate change and other environmental-or social related issues in this document are based on various frameworks and the interests of various stakeholders which are subject to evolve independently of our will. Moreover, our disclosures on such issues, including disclosures on climate change and other environmental or social-related issues, may include information that is not necessarily "material" under US securities laws for
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of
Euro amounts presented for the fully adjusted-diluted earnings per share represent dollar amounts converted at the average euro-dollar (€-$) exchange rate for the applicable period and are not the result of financial statements prepared in euros.
Cautionary Note to US Investors – The
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