ExxonMobil Raises Its 2030 Plan – Transformation Delivering Higher Earnings, Stronger Cash Flow, and Greater Returns
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Increases of
$5 billion in earnings and cash flow growth at constant prices and margins vs. prior plan with no capital spending increase1 -
Cumulative structural cost savings plan increased by
$2 billion , now$20 billion vs. 2019 - All 2030 corporate GHG emissions intensity plans now expected to be achieved in 2026
“Several years ago, when we began to transform this company, we did so with one objective: to fully unlock our competitive advantages. Today, our transformation is driving industry-leading results,” said
“As I’ve said many times,
Financial strength
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2030 Plan raised to
$25 billion earnings growth at constant prices and margins and$35 billion cash flow growth at constant prices and margins vs. 20241 -
Cumulative surplus cash flow of roughly
$145 billion through 20302
Over the next five years, the company expects to generate roughly
Upstream
- Total Upstream production increases to 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030
- Production from advantaged assets expected to comprise 65% of total volumes by 2030
Building on last year’s plan, the company now anticipates more than
The company’s advantaged assets – Permian,
In the
Product Solutions
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~$4 billion of earnings growth at constant nominal margins by 2030 from advantaged projects; 60% of that growth is from projects already online - High-value products projected to contribute more than 40% of Product Solutions’ 2030 earnings plan
Advantaged projects remain the cornerstone of this strategy, contributing approximately
High-value products, including new businesses such as Proxxima™ systems and carbon materials, are projected to contribute more than 40% of earnings potential by 2030, extending growth into high-margin, high-growth markets.
Low Carbon Solutions
- Demonstrated Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) leadership with roughly 9 MTA of CO₂ under contract with third-party customers and world’s first large scale end-to-end CCS system6
- Advancing the company’s first integrated CCS-enabled low-carbon data center project offering
Growing beyond 2030
ExxonMobil’s business will continue to evolve to meet society’s needs through 2030 and beyond. This includes strengthening the Upstream business with continued growth in the
Supporting materials for this press release are available on the ExxonMobil Investor Relations site.
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1 Increases are versus 2024. Earnings growth and cash flow growth are based on earnings and cash flow at a constant price and margin basis. Constant price and margin basis includes adjustments to 2024 |
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2 Surplus cash is calculated assuming 2024 |
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3 2x increase in Pioneer synergies based on current estimate compared to original deal basis shared on |
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4 Increase represents 2019 versus 2025 on constant nominal margin basis. Constant nominal margin basis includes 10-year average Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins, which refer to the average of annual margins from 2010-2019. |
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5 Increase represents earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 on constant nominal margin basis. Constant nominal margin basis includes 10-year average Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins, which refer to the average of annual margins from 2010-2019. |
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6 “End-to-end CCS system” entails integration of CO2 capture, transportation, and storage. Based on contracts starting in 2025, subject to additional investment by |
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7 Subject to additional investment by |
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8 New businesses earnings potential is based on internal assessment of ExxonMobil’s ability to capture Total Addressable Market potential. Roughly |
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9 Lower emissions investments include cash capex attributable to carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lithium, biofuels, Proxxima™ systems, carbon materials, and activities to lower ExxonMobil’s emissions and/or third party emissions. |
About
The corporation’s primary businesses – Upstream, Product Solutions and Low Carbon Solutions – provide products that enable modern life, including energy, chemicals, lubricants, and lower emissions technologies.
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Cautionary Statement
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. Statements of future events, conditions, expectations, plans, performance, earnings power, earnings growth at constant prices and margins, potential addressable markets, opportunities, ambitions, or results in this presentation or the subsequent discussion period are forward-looking statements. Similarly, discussions of future projects or markets for carbon capture, transportation, and storage, as well as lower-emission fuels, hydrogen, ammonia, lithium, direct air capture, Proxxima™systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data centers, and other low carbon and new business plans to reduce emissions and emission intensity of
With respect to historical periods, definitions and reconciliations are provided on pages 7 to 12 and in the Frequently Used Terms available under the “Modeling Toolkit” tab on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com for certain terms used in this Press Release including cash capex; cash opex excluding energy and production taxes; earnings (loss) excluding identified items; earnings growth at constant prices and margins; earnings growth at constant prices; earnings growth at constant margins; earnings at constant margins; return on average capital employed (ROCE); and unit earnings ex identified items. For future periods, we are unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP or other measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because the information needed to reconcile these measures is dependent on future events, many of which are outside management’s control as described above. Additionally, estimating such GAAP measures and providing a meaningful reconciliation consistent with our accounting policies for future periods is extremely difficult and requires a level of precision that is unavailable for these future periods and cannot be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Forward-looking non-GAAP measures are estimated in a manner consistent with the relevant definitions and assumptions noted above.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. For all price point comparisons, unless otherwise indicated, we assume
Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins reflect annual historical averages for the 10-year period from 2010—2019 unless otherwise stated. Lower emissions returns are calculated based on current and potential future government policies based on
Our capital allocation plans do not extend beyond 2030. Statements about our businesses that reference periods beyond 2030 are made on a basis consistent with ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook, which is publicly available on our website. Actions needed to advance ExxonMobil’s 2030 greenhouse gas emission-reductions plans are incorporated into its medium-term business plans, which are updated annually. The reference case for emission-reduction planning beyond 2030 is based on ExxonMobil’s Global Outlook research and publication. The Global Outlook is reflective of the existing global policy environment and an assumption of increasing policy stringency and technology improvement to 2050. However, the Global Outlook does not attempt to project the degree of required future policy and technology advancement and deployment for the world, or
Competitor data and
See the Cautionary Statement on page 4 for additional information regarding forward-looking statements.
Frequently Used Terms and Non-GAAP Measures
Advantaged assets (advantaged growth projects). When used in reference to our Upstream business, includes Permian,
Advantaged projects. Capital projects and programs of work that contribute to Energy, Chemical, and/or Specialty Products segments that drive integration of segments/businesses, increase yield of higher value products, or deliver higher than average returns.
Base portfolio (base). In our Upstream segment, refers to assets (or volumes) other than advantaged assets (or volumes from advantaged assets). In our Energy Products segment, refers to assets (or volumes) other than advantaged projects (or volumes from advantaged projects). In our Chemical Products and Specialty Products segments refers to volumes other than high-value products volumes.
Capital employed (non-GAAP). Measure of net investment. When viewed from the perspective of how the capital is used by the businesses, it includes ExxonMobil’s net share of property, plant and equipment, and other assets, less liabilities, excluding both short-term and long-term debt. When viewed from the perspective of the sources of capital employed in total for the Corporation, it includes our share of total debt and equity. Both of these views include our share of amounts applicable to equity companies, which we believe should be included to provide a more comprehensive measure of capital employed. Capital employed is a component of Return on average capital employed (see definition on page 9), which we view as one of the best measures of historical capital productivity in our capital-intensive, long-term industry.
Cash capital expenditures (cash capex) (non-GAAP). Sum of Additions to property, plant and equipment; additional investments and advances; and other investing activities including collection of advances; reduced by inflows from noncontrolling interests for major projects, each from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows, and for 2026+ excludes advances and collections not related to capital expenditures or equity investments, for example, supply and marketing related advances and associated collections. The company believes it is a useful measure for investors to understand the cash impact of investments in the business, which is in line with standard industry practice.
Cash flow from operations (cash flow from operating activities) ex. identified items, excluding working capital / other (non-GAAP). Net cash provided by operating activities, excluding identified items, less changes in operational working capital, excluding cash and debt, and all other items – net. Management believes this measure is useful when evaluating cash available for investment in the business and financing activities as operational working capital, excluding cash and debt, and all other items – net can vary quarter-to-quarter due to volatility and changing needs of the corporation. Cash flow from operations ex. identified items, excluding working capital / other is not meant to be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for net cash provided by operating activities.
Cash flow (CFO) growth at constant prices and margins (additional cash flow at constant price and margins) (non GAAP). Represents the cash flow growth at constant prices and nominal margins under current plans to 2030 from a 2024 baseline. For clarity, cash flow from operations excludes identified items and working capital / other. Please see page 11 for a reconciliation of 2024 cash flow growth at constant prices and nominal margins to 2024 GAAP actuals. This measure is useful for investors to understand the growth in cash flow that management expects for the corporation, on a normalized price basis, and the company believes it is useful for investors to consider these numbers excluding working capital and other to better evaluate the underlying performance of the company's business.
Cash operating expenses (cash opex) excluding energy and production taxes (non-GAAP). Subset of total operating costs that are stewarded internally to support management’s oversight of spending over time. This measure is useful for investors to understand our efforts to optimize cash through disciplined expense management for items within management’s control.
Divestments. Refers to asset sales; results include associated cash proceeds and production impacts, as applicable, and are consistent with our internal planning.
Earnings (loss) excluding identified Items (earnings ex. ident. items) (non-GAAP). Earnings (loss) excluding individually significant non-operational events with, typically, an absolute corporate total earnings impact of at least
Earnings at constant margins (earnings at constant nominal margins) (non-GAAP). Represents the earnings at constant nominal margins under current plans to 2030 from a 2024 baseline for our EMPS segments. Please see page 11 for a reconciliation of 2024 earnings at constant nominal margins to 2024 GAAP actuals. Earnings at constant nominal margins exclude identified items and is adjusted to 10-year average Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins, which refer to the average of annual margins from 2010-2019. Management believes this measure is useful for investors to understand the earnings, excluding identified items, projected in our corporate plan related to our EMPS businesses, on a normalized price basis.
Earnings growth at constant prices (non-GAAP). Represents the earnings growth at constant prices under current plans to 2030 from a 2024 baseline for our Upstream segment. Please see page 11 for a reconciliation of 2024 actuals at constant prices to 2024 GAAP actuals. Earnings growth at constant prices excludes identified items and is adjusted to 2024
Earnings growth at constant margins (earnings growth at constant nominal margins) (non-GAAP). Represents the earnings growth at constant nominal margins under current plans to 2030 from a 2024 baseline for our EMPS segments. Please see page 11 for a reconciliation of 2024 actuals at constant nominal margins to 2024 GAAP actuals. Earnings growth at constant nominal margins exclude identified items and is adjusted to 10-year average Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins, which refer to the average of annual margins from 2010-2019. Management believes this measure is useful for investors to understand the growth in earnings projected in our corporate plan related to our EMPS businesses, on a normalized price basis.
Earnings growth at constant prices and margins (additional earnings at constant price and margins) (non-GAAP). Represents the earnings growth at constant prices and nominal margins under current plans to 2030 from a 2024 baseline. Please see page 11 for a reconciliation of 2024 earnings growth at constant prices and nominal margins to 2024 GAAP actuals. Earnings growth at constant prices and nominal margins exclude identified items and is adjusted to 2024
High-value products. Includes performance products and lower-emissions fuels.
Industry-leading results (leading shareholder value, leading cash flow). Includes our leadership in metrics such as earnings, cash flow, dividends paid, share buybacks, and total shareholder return versus the IOCs. Similar terms, such as industry-leading performance or industry-leading shareholder value, refer to our leadership versus the IOCs in metrics such as production or individual terms such as return on capital employed and total shareholder return as applicable in the context presented.
IOCs. Unless stated otherwise, IOCs include each of BP,
Lower-emission fuels. Fuels with lower life cycle emissions than conventional transportation fuels for gasoline, diesel, and jet transport.
Operating costs (Opex) (non-GAAP). Operating costs are the costs during the period to produce, manufacture, and otherwise prepare the company’s products for sale – including energy, staffing, and maintenance costs. They exclude the cost of raw materials, taxes, and interest expense and are on a before-tax basis. While ExxonMobil’s management is responsible for all revenue and expense elements of net income, operating costs, as defined above, represent the expenses most directly under management’s control, and therefore believes this metric is useful for investors and
Performance products (performance polyethylene, performance chemicals, performance lubricants). Refers to products that provide differentiated performance for multiple applications through enhanced properties versus commodity alternatives and bring significant additional value to customers and end-users.
Project. The term “project” as used in this presentation can refer to a variety of different activities and does not necessarily have the same meaning as in any government payment transparency reports. Projects or plans may not reflect investment decisions made by
Return on average capital employed (ROCE, return on capital employed) (non-GAAP). A performance measure ratio. From the perspective of the business segments, ROCE is annual business segment earnings divided by average business segment capital employed (average of beginning and end-of-year amounts). These segment earnings include ExxonMobil’s share of segment earnings of equity companies, consistent with our capital employed definition, and exclude the cost of financing. The Corporation’s total ROCE is net income attributable to
Returns, rate of return, investment returns, project returns, IRR. Unless referring specifically to ROCE or external data, references to returns, rate of return, IRR, and similar terms mean future discounted cash flow returns on future capital investments based on current company estimates. Investment returns exclude prior exploration and acquisition costs.
Structural cost savings (structural cost reductions, structural cost efficiencies, structural efficiencies, structural cost improvements). Structural cost savings describe decreases in cash opex excluding energy and production taxes as a result of operational efficiencies, workforce reductions, divestment-related reductions, and other cost-savings measures, that are expected to be sustainable compared to 2019 levels. Relative to 2019, estimated cumulative structural cost savings totaled
Synergies. Synergies refer to pre-tax increases in cash flow due to factors such as higher resource recovery, lower development costs, lower operating costs, among others.
Total shareholder return (TSR, shareholder returns, shareholder value). For the purposes of this disclosure, total shareholder return is as defined by FactSet and measures the change in value of an investment in common stock over a specified period of time, assuming dividend reinvestment. For this purpose, FactSet assumes dividends are reinvested in stock at market prices on the ex-dividend date. Unless stated otherwise, total shareholder return is quoted on an annualized basis.
Unit earnings ex. identified items (non-GAAP). In our Upstream segment, refers to earnings excluding identified items divided by oil-equivalent production. In our Energy Products segment, refers to earnings excluding identified items divided by refinery throughput. In our Chemical Products and Specialty Products segments refers to earnings excluding identified items divided by sales volumes. Earnings excluded identified items are adjusted to 2024
Supplemental Information
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Reconciliation of 2024 Earnings and Earnings growth at constant prices and margins |
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Product Solutions |
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U/S |
Energy
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Chemical
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Specialty
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Corp
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2024 |
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Earnings ( |
25.4 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
(1.4) |
33.7 |
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Identified items10 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.2 |
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Earnings ex. identified items (non-GAAP) |
25.2 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
(1.4) |
33.5 |
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Adjustment to 2024 |
(9.4) |
(0.8) |
1.4 |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
(9.6) |
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Earnings ex. identified items, and adjusted to 2024 |
15.8 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
(1.4) |
24.0 |
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The 2024 reconciliation provides the baseline for measuring future growth at constant prices and margins under the current plan. |
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10Identified items in 2024 include asset management, impairments, and Tax / Other items. Due to rounding, numbers presented above may not add up precisely to the totals indicated. |
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Reconciliation of 2024 Cash flow (CFO) and cash flow growth at constant prices and margins |
2024 |
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Earnings ( |
33.7 |
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Identified items10 |
0.2 |
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Earnings ex. identified items (non-GAAP) |
33.5 |
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Adjustment to 2024 |
(9.6) |
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Earnings ex. identified items and adjusted to 2024 |
24.0 |
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Plus depreciation, ex. identified items9 |
23.0 |
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Cash flow from operating activities, ex. identified items (excluding working capital / other) and adjusted to 2024 |
47.0 |
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The 2024 reconciliation provides the baseline for measuring future growth at constant prices and margins under the current plan. For clarity, Cash flow growth at constant prices and margins excludes working capital / other. |
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10Identified items in 2024 include asset management, impairments, and Tax / Other items. Due to rounding, numbers presented above may not add up precisely to the totals indicated. |
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Calculation of Structural Cost Savings |
2019 |
2024 |
YTD’24 |
YTD’25 |
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Components of operating costs |
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From ExxonMobil’s Consolidated statement of income
( |
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Production and manufacturing expenses |
36.8 |
39.6 |
28.8 |
30.3 |
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Selling, general and administrative expenses |
11.4 |
10.0 |
7.4 |
8.1 |
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Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) |
19.0 |
23.4 |
16.9 |
18.3 |
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Exploration expenses, including dry holes |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
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Non-service pension and postretirement benefit expense |
1.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
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Subtotal |
69.7 |
74.0 |
53.7 |
57.4 |
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ExxonMobil’s share of equity company expenses (non-GAAP) |
9.1 |
9.6 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
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Total adjusted operating costs (non-GAAP) |
78.8 |
83.6 |
60.8 |
65.3 |
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|
|
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Less: |
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|
|
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Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) |
19.0 |
23.4 |
16.9 |
18.3 |
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Non-service pension and postretirement benefit expense |
1.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
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Other adjustments (including equity company depreciation and depletion) |
3.6 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
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Total cash operating expense (cash opex) (non-GAAP) |
55.0 |
56.4 |
41.3 |
43.0 |
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Energy and production taxes (non-GAAP) |
11.0 |
13.9 |
10.3 |
11.2 |
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Total cash operating expenses (cash opex) excluding energy and production taxes (non-GAAP) |
44.0 |
42.5 |
31.0 |
31.8 |
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|
|
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vs. 2019 |
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vs. 2024 |
Cumulative |
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Total cash operating expenses (cash opex) excluding energy and production taxes (non-GAAP) |
|
-1.5 |
|
+0.8 |
|
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Market |
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+4.0 |
|
+0.5 |
|
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Activity/Other |
|
+6.6 |
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+2.5 |
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Structural cost savings |
|
-12.1 |
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-2.2 |
-14.3 |
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Reconciliation of 2019 Upstream unit earnings |
2019 |
|
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Earnings ( |
14.4 |
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Identified items |
4.4 |
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Earnings ex. identified items (non-GAAP) |
10.0 |
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Adjustment to 2024 |
(2.5) |
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Earnings ex. identified items, and adjusted to 2024 |
7.5 |
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Production (Moebd, |
4.0 |
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Unit earnings ex. identified items ($/oeb, adjusted to 2024 |
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11Production adjusted to |
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12The unit earnings calculation for Upstream ($/oeb) uses total production, which is equal to Production (Moebd) multiplied by the number of days in the period multiplied by 1,000,000. |
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