ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments Back Toward 3.5-Year High
“December’s numbers show that lower interest rates drove refinance activity and prepayments to near multi-year highs,” said
Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:
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Early-stage delinquencies improved: The national delinquency rate fell by 16 basis points (bps) in December to 3.68% following November’s calendar related high. This is down 3 bps from the same time last year and 26 bps below the
December 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark. -
Late-stage delinquencies reached a near two-year high: While earlier-stage delinquencies (30- and 60-day) improved in December, late-stage delinquencies (90+ day) increased by 30,000, reaching their highest level in nearly three years and standing 19,000 above last year’s level.
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Prepayments remain robust: The single month mortality (SMM) rate, which tracks prepayments, rose by 8 bps in December to 0.91%, just 10 bps shy of the October 3.5-year high. Lower interest rates have improved affordability and spurred refinance activity.
-
Foreclosure activity trending upward: December’s 40,000 foreclosure starts marks the third highest monthly volume in 2025, up 28% from the year before. Foreclosure inventory is up by 47,000 (+25%) year over year, and foreclosure sales have increased by 2,100 (+41%) from last year's levels.
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Government loans driving foreclosure growth: While foreclosure activity remains muted by historical standards, the number of loans in active foreclosure again hit its highest level since early 2023, driven by a notable rise in FHA foreclosures (+59% YoY) along with a resumption of
VA activity following last year's moratorium.
Data as of
Total
Month-over-month change: -4.20%
Year-over-year change: -0.93%
Total
Month-over-month change: 5.71%
Year-over-year change: 22.86%
Total
Month-over-month change 53.96%
Year-over-year change: 27.74%
Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.91%
Month-over-month change: 9.92%
Year-over-year change: 59.15%
Foreclosure sales: 7,100
Month-over-month change: 6.68%
Year-over-year change: 40.77%
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 2,025,000
Month-over-month change: -89,000
Year-over-year change: 9,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 560,000
Month-over-month change: 30,000
Year-over-year change: 19,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 239,000
Month-over-month change: 13,000
Year-over-year change: 47,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,265,000
Month-over-month change: -76,000
Year-over-year change: 56,000
|
Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
|
|
|
8.58% |
|
|
8.37% |
|
|
6.36% |
|
|
6.03% |
|
|
5.96% |
|
|
|
|
Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
|
|
|
2.35% |
|
|
2.30% |
|
|
2.26% |
|
|
2.16% |
|
|
2.11% |
|
|
|
|
Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage |
|
|
|
2.41% |
|
|
2.26% |
|
|
1.82% |
|
|
1.62% |
|
|
1.54% |
|
|
|
|
Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
|
|
|
-8.78% |
|
|
-5.78% |
|
|
-5.48% |
|
|
-4.87% |
|
|
-3.52%
|
|
|
|
|
Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
|
|
|
10.63% |
|
|
9.40% |
|
|
8.45% |
|
|
8.36% |
|
|
8.25% |
*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
- Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.
- All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.
The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report is available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports.
For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.
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Category: Mortgage Technology
Source:
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260126881841/en/
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