ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Prepayments Rise on Recent Refinance Activity and Serious Delinquencies Increase as Cure Rates Slow
"February saw a clear rebound in prepayment activity, with speeds rising 14% month over month and 80% year over year as the wave of refinances triggered by lower rates in January reached closing,” said
Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:
- Prepayments rebounded: The single-month mortality (SMM) rate, a measure of prepayment speed, increased by 10 basis points (bps) in February to 0.82% and was up 80% from the same time last year. The uptick follows a refinance wave driven by January rate drops.
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Delinquencies edged up in February: The national delinquency rate rose by 7 bps in February to 3.72%, driven by a 4% seasonal rise in early (30-day) delinquencies and a 3% rise in seriously delinquent (90-plus day) loans. The rate is up 20 bps from the same time last year but remains 12 bps below its
February 2020 pre-pandemic benchmark.
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Combined serious delinquency and foreclosure volumes increased: At the end of January, 878,000 loans were in a state of severe delinquency or foreclosure. That figure is up 175,000 (25%) over the past four months, the highest since
June 2022 , and the highest sinceJune 2018 when excluding the immediate effect of the pandemic. FHA loans account for roughly 80% of the recent increase.
- Cure rates have slowed: The rise in seriously delinquent loans is driven primarily by a decline in cure activity rather than a spike in new defaults. While the number of new loans that have become 90-plus days delinquent over the past four months has remained roughly flat on an annual basis, cure rates among 90-plus day delinquent mortgages are down by more than 40%.
- Foreclosure activity is rising off recent record lows: February saw 35,000 foreclosure starts, down 16% from January but up 7% year over year. Foreclosure sales declined 13% in the month but rose 25% year over year. The share of loans in active foreclosure remains 6 bps below pre-pandemic levels, though it rose by 4% in February and is up 25% from a year ago.
Data as of
Total
Month-over-month change: 2.00%
Year-over-year change: 5.61%
Total
Month-over-month change: 4.03%
Year-over-year change: 24.63%
Total
Month-over-month change -15.86%
Year-over-year change: 6.46%
Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.82%
Month-over-month change: 14.13%
Year-over-year change: 79.89%
Foreclosure sales: 7,000
Month-over-month change: -13.60%
Year-over-year change: 24.70%
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 2,046,000
Month-over-month change: 40,000
Year-over-year change: 133,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 612,000
Month-over-month change: 17,000
Year-over-year change: 84,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 266,000
Month-over-month change: 10,000
Year-over-year change: 55,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,312,000
Month-over-month change: 50,000
Year-over-year change: 188,000
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Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
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8.64% |
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8.51% |
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6.39% |
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|
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6.08% |
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5.96% |
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Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage |
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2.41% |
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2.39% |
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2.35% |
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2.26% |
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2.16% |
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Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage |
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2.59% |
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2.47% |
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1.93% |
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1.77% |
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1.71% |
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Top 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
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-2.93% |
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-0.39% |
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1.96% |
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2.21% |
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2.82% |
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Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
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18.83% |
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14.90% |
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14.36% |
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12.96% |
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12.05% |
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*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state. |
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Notes: |
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1) Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets. |
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2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred. |
The company will provide a more in-depth review of mortgage performance data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, an in-depth analysis of mortgage and housing market trends that is supplemented by charts and graphs. The Mortgage Monitor report is available online at https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports.
For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, email ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.
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Category: Mortgage Technology
Source:
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260325046146/en/
ICE Media Contact
johnna.szegda@ice.com
+1 (404) 798-1155
ICE Investor Contact:
steve.eagerton@ice.com
+1 (904) 854-3683
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