Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB
| Company Name: |
Scandinavian Astor Group AB |
| ISIN: |
SE0019175274 |
| |
| Reason for the research: |
Update |
| Recommendation: |
BUY |
| Target price: |
SEK 51 |
| Target price on sight of: |
12 months |
| Last rating change: |
|
| Analyst: |
Simon Keller |
FY25 confirmed, Ammunity growth runway in focus
Astor closed FY25 with
results fully in line with the preliminary figures released in February, leaving the financial picture unchanged. FY25 sales reached
SEK 433m (+94% yoy), adj. EBITDA
SEK 83m (margin: 19.2%, +6.3pp yoy), net cash
SEK 35m and equity ratio 64%.
The year-end
order backlog warrants brief context. While the figure may look modest at first glance, relative to some defence primes, lean firm backlogs are not unusual for suppliers of Astor's type, in our view. The clearest
evidence is the 2024 starting point: the backlog due in 2025 stood at only
SEK 135m, c. 39% of the
SEK 345m in sales ultimately generated that year by the businesses already owned at the time (eNuW). Against that reference, the year-end 2025 backlog due in 2026 of
SEK 409m, equivalent to c. 63% of our FY26e sales estimate of
SEK 650m, reads as a step-up in visibility.
The
management transition is a near-term overhang. Following the CFO change announced in January, Astor disclosed in April that CEO
Mattias Hjorth will step down, with board member
Martin Elovsson set to take over at the AGM on 13 May. The incoming CEO brings internal familiarity and an execution-focused background, which should support operational continuity. That said, any leadership transition carries execution risk, and we expect it to weigh on sentiment until the new team has established credibility with investors. For a group where the growth model is built on acquisitions, management continuity matters across capital allocation, integration discipline and external communication alike.
At the same time, the
operational picture remains compelling. Astor is well-positioned across structurally growing defence end-markets, with demand tailwinds that show no signs of fading. The
most interesting near-term growth vector is Ammunity,
Latvia's only manufacturer of military small-calibre ammunition and the largest private ammunition producer in the Baltics, consolidated from
Nov 25. Weeks after closing, Astor committed
SEK 92m in capacity investment targeting additional production lines, with the
potential to increase annual output up to sixfold over time and a first contribution to sales and profitability from this expansion is expected from H2 26.
The investment case for Ammunity rests on a highly favourable demand environment. Our analysis of Baltic defence procurement
puts the annual
addressable market for small-calibre ammunition only across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania already at c. € 60m today. Against that backdrop, Ammunity's current revenue run-rate of c. € 13m (eNuW) already represents a meaningful share of a market that is itself expanding rapidly. As
Latvia's sole domestic military-grade small-calibre producer, Ammunity carries a structural competitive advantage that few European peers can replicate. Sales expansion might also benefit from growth in
Ukraine and the Nordic market.
Reiterate
BUY, unchanged
PT of SEK 51, based on a blend of DCF and peer group valuation.
You can download the research here:
scandinavian-astor-group-ab-2026-04-14-update-en-6b79f
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG -
Equity ResearchWeb:
www.nuways-ag.comEmail:
research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148
Hamburg, Germany++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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