Improving Affordability, Emerging Spring Demand May Boost House Price Growth Nationally, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report
—Stronger monthly appreciation signals early seasonal firming, even as prices remain below year-ago levels, says Chief Economist
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March1 National House Price Index |
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First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI |
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Metric |
Change in HPI |
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February 2026-March 2026 (month over month) |
0.3 percent |
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March 2025-March 2026 (year over year) |
-0.4 percent |
Highlights
- Annual house price appreciation remained below 1 percent for the eighth consecutive month in March.
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House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for
January 2026 toFebruary 2026 was revised up by +0.17 percentage point, from -0.02 percent to +0.15 percent.
“Nationally, house prices remain modestly below where they were a year ago, continuing to ease affordability pressures for prospective buyers,” said
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.
“Local price trends reveal a pronounced regional divide,” said Fleming. “Midwestern and Northeastern markets continue to lead with strong annual price gains, while many markets in the South and West remain below year-ago levels. Only nine of the top 30 markets we track recorded positive annual growth, highlighting just how widespread the softening in house prices has become. However, as the spring buying season ramps up, stronger monthly price gains suggest that further price declines may be over, but that momentum will depend on local supply and demand conditions.”
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Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier HPI |
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CBSA |
Change in Starter Tier HPI |
Change in Mid-Tier HPI |
Change in Luxury Tier HPI |
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+6.2 percent |
+1.8 percent |
+2.3 percent |
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+3.2 percent |
-0.1 percent |
-0.5 percent |
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+1.9 percent |
+0.6 percent |
+1.6 percent |
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+1.6 percent |
-0.1 percent |
-0.2 percent |
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+1.5 percent |
-2.8 percent |
-0.2 percent |
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Additional |
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Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI |
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CBSA |
Change in HPI |
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+5.8 percent |
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+4.5 percent |
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+1.1 percent |
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+0.8 percent |
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+0.6 percent |
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Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI |
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-5.2 percent |
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-3.4 percent |
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-3.1 percent |
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-3.0 percent |
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-2.6 percent |
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.
Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.
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1 The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
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Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of
Q: Are
A: Home prices are showing mixed trends. While prices remain slightly below year-ago levels nationally, monthly appreciation has strengthened, suggesting early signs of a seasonal rebound as the spring home-buying season begins.
Q: Why are home prices declining year over year, but increasing month over month?
A: Improved affordability conditions and seasonal demand are driving stronger monthly price gains, even though prices remain below last year’s levels due to prior market softening.
Q: Is housing affordability improving for buyers?
A: Yes. National house prices are modestly lower than a year ago, which is helping ease affordability pressures for prospective homebuyers, according to First American Chief Economist
Q: What is driving recent changes in the housing market?
A: Key factors include improved affordability, emerging spring demand, and local supply-and-demand dynamics. These forces are contributing to renewed price momentum after a period of slower growth.
Q: Which regions saw the strongest house price growth in March?
A: Midwestern and Northeastern markets are leading in annual price growth. Cities like
Q: Which housing markets saw the largest house price declines in March?
A: Among major metropolitan areas,
Q: What is the First American Data & Analytics HPI?
A: The First American Data & Analytics HPI measures changes in single-family home prices across
Q: How current is the First American Data & Analytics HPI data?
A: The HPI tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time, making it one of the timeliest measures of
Q: Who produces the First American Data & Analytics HPI?
A: The HPI is produced by First American Data & Analytics, a division of
Q: When will the next HPI report be released?
A: The next First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index report is scheduled for release during the week of
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2026 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
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